Justus-Liebig University Gießen Faculty 09: Agricultural Sciences, Nutritional Sciences and Environmental Management Economic analysis of Pakistan’s mango exports towards the European Union Dissertation to obtain the Doctoral degree (Dr. agr.) Institute of Farm and Agribusiness Management Chair of Agricultural Production Economics Author: Shams Ul Haq First Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Joachim Aurbacher Second Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ramona Teuber TABLE OF CONTENTS i Table of Contents Table of Contents..........................................................................................................................i List of Tables................................................................................................................................iv List of Figures..............................................................................................................................vi List of Appendices.....................................................................................................................vii List of Abbreviations...............................................................................................................viii 1 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................1 1.1 Background information .................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem statement ............................................................................................ 4 1.3 Study objectives ............................................................................................... 5 1.4 Rationale of the study ...................................................................................... 6 1.5 Organization of the thesis ................................................................................ 7 2 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND MANGO SECTOR....8 2.1 Economy of Pakistan ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 Role of agriculture in Pakistan‟s economy .............................................. 12 2.1.2 Horticulture sector development ............................................................. 14 2.2 Mango production and its marketing system ................................................. 16 2.2.1 Pakistan mango supply chain .................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Mango export performance and its major destinations ........................... 20 2.3 Pakistan mango export to the European market and its issues ...................... 21 2.3.1 Farm-related issues and quality control ................................................... 21 2.3.2 Logistical problems ................................................................................. 22 2.3.3 Institutional and policy level challenges ................................................. 23 3 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS25 3.1 Research design and data collection .............................................................. 25 3.1.1 Framework of the research design ........................................................... 25 3.1.2 Consulting with authorities and key stakeholders ................................... 27 3.1.3 Selection and description of study areas.................................................. 27 ii TABLE OF CONTENTS 3.1.4 Sampling procedure and data collection ................................................. 28 3.2 Descriptive characteristics of exporting firms and shipping services ........... 30 3.2.1 Demographic characteristics of sample exporters ................................... 31 3.2.2 Firms‟ characteristics and types of exporters .......................................... 33 3.2.3 Export process and target markets ........................................................... 37 3.2.4 Export supply and its transport mode distribution .................................. 40 3.3 Pakistan mango in EU market and its major competitors ............................. 42 4 EXPORT EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS...............................................................46 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 46 4.2 Analytical framework .................................................................................... 47 4.3 Variables description ...................................................................................... 51 4.4 Results and discussion ................................................................................... 55 4.4.1 Technical efficiency of Aggregate exports .............................................. 55 4.4.2 Technical efficiency of Specialized–EU exports ..................................... 61 4.4.3 Technical efficiency of Diversified–EU exports ..................................... 66 4.5 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................... 70 5 DETERMINANTS OF MANGO EXPORT.....................................................71 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Analytical framework .................................................................................... 72 5.3 Export margin analysis .................................................................................. 74 5.3.1 Variables description ............................................................................... 75 5.3.2 Results and discussion ............................................................................. 76 5.4 Determinants of Pakistan mango export ........................................................ 81 5.4.1 Variables description ............................................................................... 81 5.4.2 Results and discussion ............................................................................. 84 5.5 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................... 93 6 TRANSPORT MODE CHOICE.......................................................................95 6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 95 6.2 Choice modeling theory ............................................................................... 100 TABLE OF CONTENTS iii 6.2.1 Conditional logit model ......................................................................... 102 6.2.2 Mixed logit model .................................................................................. 104 6.2.3 Willingness to pay .................................................................................. 106 6.3 Choice sets and experimental designing ...................................................... 107 6.4 Empirical models specification .................................................................... 112 6.5 Results and discussion ................................................................................. 113 6.6 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................. 118 7 IMPORT DEMAND AND EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS......................119 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 119 7.2 Analytical framework .................................................................................. 120 7.2.1 Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) .................................................. 120 7.2.2 Export indices for comparative advantage ............................................ 124 7.3 Description of the variables ......................................................................... 127 7.4 Results and discussion ................................................................................. 128 7.4.1 AIDS model estimations for extra-EU imports ..................................... 128 7.4.2 AIDS model estimations for intra-EU imports ...................................... 136 7.4.3 Export Competitiveness Analysis .......................................................... 144 7.5 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................. 149 8 SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.....................152 8.1 Summary and conclusion ............................................................................. 152 8.1.1 Estimation methods ............................................................................... 152 8.1.2 Major findings and conclusion .............................................................. 153 8.1.3 Comparative view on findings ............................................................... 156 8.1.4 Study contributions ................................................................................ 157 8.2 Policy recommendations .............................................................................. 158 8.3 Limitations and prospect for future research ............................................... 159 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................163 APPENDICES.........................................................................................................173 iv LIST OF TABLES List of Tables Table 2.1: Pakistan and other leading mango-producing countries (2021) ................ 15 Table 2.2: Province-wise mango production (1000 tons) in Pakistan (2010-2022) .. 17 Table 2.3: Pakistan mango cultivation area, production, and yield (2000-2020) ...... 17 Table 2.4: Pakistan‟s mango export to top ten countries (2022) ................................ 21 Table 3.1: Frequency distribution of sample exporters‟ age (years)………………...31 Table 3.2: Frequency distribution of sample exporters‟ education (years) ................ 32 Table 3.3: Frequency distribution of sample exporters‟ experience (years) .............. 33 Table 3.4: Frequency distribution of exporting firms‟ working capital (million Rs) . 34 Table 3.5: Frequency distribution of exporting firms‟ total workers (number) ......... 34 Table 3.6: Frequency distribution of exporting firms‟ packhouse capacity (ton/day) 35 Table 3.7: Frequency distribution of exporting firms‟ shipments (nr./season) .......... 36 Table 3.8: Frequency distribution of exporting firms by treatment type, treatment plant, and packhouse facility .................................................................... 37 Table 3.9: Description of four export target markets ................................................. 39 Table 3.10: Mango trade in the top five EU countries (2020) ................................... 44 Table 4.1: Description of variables used in efficiency scores calculation…………..52 Table 4.2: Description of variables used in regression analysis................................. 53 Table 4.3: Summary statistics of scale variables used in regression analysis ............ 54 Table 4.4: Summary statistics of categorical variables used in regression analysis .. 55 Table 4.5: Frequency distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for Aggregate exports 56 Table 4.6: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Aggregate exports (tobit regression) ....................................................................................... 58 Table 4.7: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Aggregate exports (truncated regression) ............................................................................... 60 Table 4.8: Frequency distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for Specialized–EU exports ....................................................................................................... 61 Table 4.9: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Specialized–EU exports (tobit regression) .......................................................................... 63 Table 4.10: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Specialized–EU exports (truncated regression) ................................................................... 65 Table 4.11: Frequency distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for Diversified–EU exports ....................................................................................................... 66 Table 4.12: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Diversified–EU exports (tobit regression) .......................................................................... 68 LIST OF TABLES v Table 4.13: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Diversified–EU exports (truncated regression) ................................................................... 69 Table 5.1: Summary statistics of cost-related variables in export margin analysis…75 Table 5.2: Export margin of firms in Aggregate market............................................. 76 Table 5.3: Export margin of firms in Specialized–EU market ................................... 78 Table 5.4: Export margin of firms in Diversified–EU market .................................... 79 Table 5.5: Summary statistics of socio-economic variables for total mango export .. 81 Table 5.6: Summary statistics of dummy variables for total mango export ............... 82 Table 5.7: Summary statistics of cost-related variables for total mango export ........ 83 Table 5.8: Weights of determinants of total mango export in Aggregate market ....... 85 Table 5.9: Determinants of total mango export in Aggregate market ........................ 87 Table 5.10: Weights of determinants of total mango export in Specialized–EU market ................................................................................................................... 88 Table 5.11: Determinants of total mango export in Specialized–EU market ............. 90 Table 5.12: Weights of determinants of total mango export in Diversified–EU market ................................................................................................................... 91 Table 5.13: Determinants of total mango export in Diversified-EU market .............. 93 Table 6.1: Attributes and their levels for air and sea mode………………………...110 Table 6.2: Sample choice card used to collect data .................................................. 112 Table 6.3: Determinants of exporters‟ transport mode choice (conditional logit model) ...................................................................................................... 115 Table 6.4: Determinants of exporters‟ transport mode choice (mixed logit model). 116 Table 6.5: Willingness to pay of exporters for transport mode choice attributes ..... 117 Table 7.1: Summary statistics of variables involved in LA/AIDS model for extra-EU exporters………………………………………………………………..128 Table 7.2: Estimated coefficients of LA/AIDS model for extra-EU exporters ........ 132 Table 7.3: Expenditure elasticities of extra-EU exporters ........................................ 134 Table 7.4: Marshallian (uncompensated) price elasticities of extra-EU exporters .. 135 Table 7.5: Hicksian (compensated) price elasticities of extra-EU exporters ........... 136 Table 7.6: Summary statistics of variables involved in LA/AIDS model for intra-EU exporters .................................................................................................. 137 Table 7.7: Estimated coefficients of LA/AIDS model for intra-EU exporters ......... 141 Table 7.8: Expenditure elasticities for intra-EU exporters ....................................... 142 Table 7.9: Marshallian (uncompensated) price elasticities for intra-EU exporters .. 143 Table 7.10: Hicksian (compensated) price elasticities for intra-EU exporters ......... 144 Table 7.11: Comparative export performance index (CEP) values .......................... 148 vi LIST OF FIGURES List of Figures Figure 2.1: Percentage distribution of Pakistan‟s land utilization ............................... 9 Figure 2.2: Pakistan‟s exports and imports as % of its GDP ..................................... 10 Figure 2.3: Contribution of economic sectors (%) in Pakistan‟s GDP (2018-2022) . 14 Figure 2.4: Structure of value chains in Pakistan‟s mango industry .......................... 20 Figure 3.1: Framework of the research design for the study…………………………….....26 Figure 3.2: Study area map of Pakistan ...................................................................... 28 Figure 3.3: Pakistan‟s total mango export (ton) and its target markets (2014) .......... 40 Figure 3.4: Pakistan‟s mango export by transport modes (2014) .............................. 41 Figure 3.5: Pakistan‟s mango export quantity (%) by transport modes (2014) ......... 42 Figure 3.6: EU import quantity (ton) for thirteen years (2008-2020) ........................ 43 Figure 3.7: Mango trade flow (ton) within the EU market (2020) ............................ 45 Figure 4.1: Technical and allocative efficiencies……………………………………48 Figure 4.2: Distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for categorical variables in Aggregate exports .................................................................................... 57 Figure 4.3: Distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for categorical variables in Specialized-EU exports............................................................................ 62 Figure 4.4: Distribution of firms‟ efficiency scores for categorical variables in Diversified–EU exports ........................................................................... 67 Figure 5.1: Comparison of net export margin for four different markets…………...80 Figure 6.1: Framework of Pakistan‟s mango export to the European market………....97 Figure 6.2: Exporters‟ perception of transport limitations affecting mode choice .... 98 Figure 6.3: Transit time and freight charges from Pakistan to the Europe (2014) ..... 99 Figure 6.4: Summary of freight transportation demand models .............................. 101 Figure 7.1: Total annual mango exports of extra-EU countries (2008-2020)……...129 Figure 7.2: Export market share of extra-EU countries by quantity (2008-2020) ... 130 Figure 7.3: Export market share of extra-EU countries by value (2008-2020) ....... 131 Figure 7.4: Total annual mango exports of intra-EU countries (2008-2020) ........... 138 Figure 7.5: Export market share of intra-EU countries by quantity (2008-2020) .... 139 Figure 7.6: Export market share of intra-EU countries by value (2008-2020) ........ 140 Figure 7.7: Export index of revealed comparative advantage.................................. 146 Figure 7.8: Export index of ln-version revealed comparative advantage and revealed symmetric comparative advantage ........................................................ 147 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file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998505 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998506 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998507 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998508 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998509 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998510 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc174998510 LIST OF APPENDICES vii List of Appendices Appendix 1: World's top ten mango exporting and importing countries (2021) ...... 173 Appendix 2: Export documentation for EU and non-EU markets ........................... 173 Appendix 3: Correlation plots for different export markets; (a) Aggregate (b) Specialized-EU (c) Diversified-EU (d) Diversified-non-EU .............. 174 Appendix 4: Variance inflation factor values of determinants of Specialized–EU exports (tobit regression) ..................................................................... 175 Appendix 5: Variance inflation factor values of determinants of Specialized–EU exports (truncated regression) .............................................................. 175 Appendix 6: Distribution of efficiency scores for Diversified–non-EU exports ..... 176 Appendix 7: Distribution of efficiency scores for categorical variables in Diversified–non-EU exports ................................................................ 176 Appendix 8: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Diversified–non- EU exports (tobit regression) ............................................................... 177 Appendix 9: Factors associated with technical efficiency of firms in Diversified–non- EU exports (truncated regression) ....................................................... 177 Appendix 10: Export margin of firms in Diversified–non-EU exports .................... 178 Appendix 11: Weights of determinants of total mango export in Diversified–non-EU market ................................................................................................... 178 Appendix 12: Determinants of total mango export in Diversified–non-EU market 179 Appendix 13: Export indices of the extra-EU countries (2008-2020) ..................... 179 Appendix 14: Comparative export performance index (CEP) ................................. 181 Appendix 15: Primary data survey questionnaire .................................................... 182 Appendix 16: Set of all choice cards used to collect data ........................................ 192 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000216 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000218 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000218 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000219 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000219 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000221 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000221 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000227 file:///C:/Users/user/Documents/Assignments/UPWORK/46)%20Final%20mango%20thesis%20editing/Thesis%2004.08.docx%23_Toc175000228 viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS List of Abbreviations AIDS Almost Ideal Demand System AMIS Agricultural Marketing and Information Services CEP Comparative Export Performance CL Conditional Logit (Model) CRS Constant Return to Scale DCE Discrete Choice Experiment DEA Data Envelopment Analysis DMU Decision Making Unit DOA Department of Agriculture EMA Export Margin Analysis EU European Union EUROSTAT European Union's Statistical Office FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FDI Foreign Direct Investment FIML Full Information Maximum Likelihood GAP Good Agricultural Practices GDP Gross Domestic Product GLS Generalized Least Squares GOP Government of Pakistan GSP Generalized Scheme of Preferences HWD Hot Water Dip HWT Hot Water Treatment IIA Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives IID Independently and Identically Distributed lnRCA Logarithmic Revealed Comparative Advantage JGLS Joint Generalized Least Squares KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa LA/AIDS Linear Approximate AIDS LIML Limited Information Maximum Likelihood ML Mixed Logit (Model) LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ix OLS Ordinary Least Squares PBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics PES Pakistan Economic Survey PFVEA Pakistan Fruit & Vegetable Exporters‟ Association PHDEB Pakistan Horticulture Development and Export Board RCA Revealed Comparative Advantage RSCA Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage RUM Random Utility Maximization SAFTA South Asian Free Trade Area SE Scale Efficiency SFA Stochastic Frontier Analysis SP Stated Preference SUR Seemingly Unrelated Regression TDAP Trade Development Authority of Pakistan TE Technical Efficiency VHT Vapor Hot Treatment VIF Variance Inflation Factor VRS Variable Return to Scale WB World Bank WTO World Trade Organization WTP Willingness to Pay INTRODUCTION 1 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background information Rapid economic growth is a critical objective of every developing country, with exports being generally considered as a key driver for it. International trade not only acts as a driving force for economic growth but also become a key source of foreign exchange, as noted by MAKHMUTOVA & MUSTAFIN (2017). In this trade, agricultural exports of an agro-based economy like Pakistan play a pivotal role in economic growth as well as in socioeconomic advancement (ATIF et al., 2017). These export activities have a significant positive impact, boosting income for domestic agricultural enterprises and traders, enhancing quality at various stages of agricultural production including cultivation, storage, and transportation, increasing foreign exchange earnings, and driving economic growth (XU et al., 2023). This is especially critical for developing countries with limited national resource bases, to accelerate their development processes. Over time, the role of agriculture has evolved from merely supplying resources to becoming a sector of paramount importance. Agriculture not only boosts domestic production and exports but also enhances employment opportunities, thereby improving food security in developing countries. The opening of economies through increased participation in international trade has prompted many developing nations to increase their export earnings, thereby enabling them to overcome economic and social challenges. Therefore, the adoption of innovative strategies in agriculture sector is crucial for increasing its export potential (SHABANOV et al., 2021). Technological advancements in fruit production, post-harvest handling, processing and logistics, coupled with higher levels of international investment, have facilitated the export growth. For developing countries, trading in fruit commodities has become quite challenging amidst their volatile prices in international export market (DIOP & JAFEE, 2005). Fruits, due to their perishable nature, the short lifespan, and specific post-harvest handling and marketing requirements exhibit unique challenges in their trade. These characteristics necessitate scientific and meticulous handling throughout the supply chain. Mango, one of the most widely cultivated tropical fruits in the world, particularly in Asia, requires careful attention in its supply chain management. Countries that have developed this capability over time have outperformed others in mango exports. 2 INTRODUCTION Pakistan is recognized as the 27 th largest economy globally, a status attributed to its substantial purchasing power, despite being categorized as an underdeveloped country (FARIDI, 2012). With an exception of few years, Pakistan has consistently experienced a trade deficit since its establishment. The country's primary exports consist of textile products, leather, sporting goods, rice, citrus and mango. These exports are primarily directed to a selected group of countries, with approximately 50% going to the United States, the UAE, China, the United Kingdom, Iran, and Germany (GOP, 2020). Due to the persistent trade deficit, recent trade policies in Pakistan have been primarily centered on expanding exports, improving export competitiveness, and transitioning from a factor-based economy to the one focused on efficiency and innovation. The country is actively engaged in pursuing both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements, including participation in the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the Pak-China Free Trade agreements. Additionally, Pakistan is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and holds GSP + status (Generalized System of Preferences) from the USA and the European Union (EU), respectively. Despite being part of these arrangements, Pakistan has not fully capitalized on the benefits, emphasizing the need to enhance its export efficiency. Pakistan's total cultivated area spans 23.3 million hectares out of a total land area of 79.6 million hectares. The agriculture sector plays a dominant role in Pakistan's economy, accounting for approximately 19 % of the GDP and engaging around 42% of the workforce (AHMAD et al., 2021). It acts as a crucial source of foreign exchange earnings and plays a significant role in stimulating growth in other sectors (GOP, 2018). The total value of Pakistan's agricultural production amounts to USD 66.43 billion. Given Pakistan's reliance on agriculture, the agricultural sector is often referred to as the backbone of the national economy (KHAN et al., 2020). Horticulture, a sub-sector of agriculture, serves as a cornerstone in fortifying the rural economy. Pakistan, endowed with four seasons and a vast agro-ecological environment, is suitable for the production of a wide variety of temperate, sub- tropical and Mediterranean fruits and vegetables (IKRAM et al., 2020; TALAT et al., 2020). Citrus, mango, and dates emerge as primary fruit crops, making substantial contributions to the national income (GOP, 2020). Mango, among the various horticultural crops cultivated in Pakistan, due to its unique taste, holds substantial potential for export to other countries (ZAHID et al., 2023). Pakistani mangoes are well-regarded globally for their sweetness, juiciness, INTRODUCTION 3 nutritional value, and distinctive flavor. However, the ratio of Pakistan's mango export to its production has seen a decline over time due to various reasons (SHAMOON et al., 2020). Pakistan holds the 6 th position globally in mango production, trailing behind India, China, Thailand, Indonesia, and Mexico, with an annual output of 1.7 million metric tons (FAO, 2017). In terms of mango exports, Pakistan ranks at 7 th position, following Mexico, India, Thailand, Peru, Brazil, and the Netherlands. The key destinations of Pakistani mangoes include the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands, Iran, Malaysia, and several other countries in the Middle East and Europe (BADAR, 2015). Despite with its significant mango production and export position, Pakistan has been unable to harvest its full potential for exports and still faces challenges in the global market. HASSAN & REHMAN (2015) emphasized that Pakistan's share of mango exports in the world market is greater in terms of quantity but lower in terms of value, indicating that the price of Pakistan's mango in the global market is lower compared to other mango supplying countries. Pakistan receives the lowest export price among the top mango-exporting countries (SHAMOON et al., 2020). The country has the lowest total export value (579 USD/ton) when compared to other major mango exporting nations (ZAHID et al., 2023). A study by GHAFOOR et al., (2010) attributes this to factors such as poor product quality, short shelf life, non-compliance with safety standards, exceeding pesticides residue limits, fruit fly infestation, inadequate packaging, lack of traceability, and high freight charges. Moreover, reliance on traditional mango varieties, inadequate orchard management practices, substandard post-harvest handling, traditional marketing methods, and non-compliance with international standards have constrained the expansion of mango exports from Pakistan. Importers in developed markets like EU often require traceability of food products along with adherence to standards such as HACCP, Euro GAP, Global GAP, and others. Factors such as controlled temperature, proper packaging, and transportation in reefers play crucial roles in determining the freshness of mangoes and their shelf life. Additionally, local infrastructural development, particularly in roads and storage facilities, can also enhance the marketing efficiency of this delicate fruit. 4 INTRODUCTION 1.2 Problem statement The international export market for mangoes is highly competitive, as supplies originate from various geographical sources throughout the year, necessitating the need for improvements in production and marketing systems to meet the evolving requirements at the global level. In this context, it is crucial to analyze the current Pakistan mango trade environment and the challenges that Pakistan mango industry is encountering despite the significant potential and demand of the fruit. To excel in the mango export business, exporters need to have a comprehensive understanding of factors affecting their export efficiency such as product quality, marketing costs, packaging of export consignments, and long-term trade relations with the importers. The mango industry in Pakistan is predominantly operated by the private sector, while government‟s role is primarily focused on regulating and monitoring various operations within the market and formulating policies & working plans to enhance mango exports from Pakistan. Recognizing the potential of mango exports, Pakistan government has implemented various measures aimed at improving different aspects of mango production and exports. These efforts have been undertaken by the organizations such as Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MONFA), Ministry of Commerce (MoC), Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), Pakistan Horticulture Development & Export Board (PHDEB) (MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, 2012). However, despite these measures, empirical records indicate a decline in Pakistan mango exports, in terms of value. Hence it is important to investigate the mango industry‟s export performance and identify the major factors affecting it. To evaluate the export performance, along with the socio-economic and business characteristics of exporters, technical efficiency and export margins of the exporting firms are assessed. In order to enhance the export competitiveness of Pakistan mango, special attention has been paid to “economizing the logistics cost” as logistics is the major contributor in export cost structure. Pakistan remains among the top seven mango exporting countries of the world by exporting around 5% of its total production to more than twenty countries (PHDEB, 2008) but still facing serious challenges in distribution. Currently, exports to markets in close proximity like Gulf countries and Saudi Arabia has almost entirely shifted from air to sea freight (60%) but exports to distant markets like European market are still by air (MALIK et al., 2010). The increasing cost of air freight is a key factor creating interest to examine sea- freight as an alternative mode of mango transport to EU market. Though sea-freight INTRODUCTION 5 takes longer time (28-30 days) to deliver Pakistani mango to European market than does air freight but recent developments in container and shipping technology offer maritime service as a viable mode of transportation in future. So, now maritime transport is beginning to compete with air transport in shipping commodities even for perishable food products (COYLE et al., 2015). Therefore, boosting the competitiveness of Pakistani mangoes in international market through cost-effective and efficient logistics can prove to be valuable in pinpointing the necessity for policy adjustments and delineating economic welfare. Empirical evaluation of export efficiency and the competitiveness of Pakistan's mango export value chain can provide insights into its development. Furthermore, analyzing the exporters‟ behavior of transport mode choice and its impact on export competitiveness of Pakistani mango in EU market can offer them better understanding in making optimal decisions of choosing the transport mode. To understand the extent and potential of mango exports, it is crucial to study comparative advantage. Hence, there is a necessity to analyze the evolving comparative advantage of Pakistan's mango trade over time and its implications for export growth by comparing Pakistan's mango export against major mango exporters. This insight can be helpful in determining whether Pakistan is effectively addressing the challenges of the global mango export market and capitalizing on all the potentials of its highly demanded mango crop. 1.3 Study objectives The overall objective of the study is to investigate the export performance of Pakistan mango value chain for different target markets and explore the areas of improvement to enhance its competitiveness in high valued market like Europe for policy implications. The specific objectives aimed to achieve in the study are:  To determine the factors affecting export efficiency of mango exporters for four different markets through a firm-level technical efficiency analysis,  To identify the high valued export market from exporters‟ perspective by conducting a market-specific profitability analysis,  To examine the transport mode choice behavior of Pakistan mango exporters for EU market and attributes influencing it, and  To analyze the import demand of mango by European market and assess Pakistan‟s competitiveness among other leading mango exporters to this market. 6 INTRODUCTION 1.4 Rationale of the study In general, the purpose of the study is to develop an economic understanding about issues and challenges being faced by exporters in Pakistan mango export value chain. Observing the export performances for different target markets and firms‟ characteristics associated with it, provides a good opportunity to understand the current situation, strengths and weaknesses of different actors involved at various stages in the export value chain. This study provides insights about firm-level export efficiency, factors influencing it, comparative analysis of export business for four different markets, and exporters‟ behavior of transport mode choice for European market. Furthermore, export competitiveness of Pakistan mango in EU market is also evaluated. In order to explore the export potential of Pakistan mango value chain and enhance its competitiveness in EU market, a logistics-centric export strategy is elucidated as a way forward. A comprehensive Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) is conducted to assess the counterfactual effect of different logistics attributes, affecting the mode choice. In the choice experiment, four different transport mode alternatives are provided to exporters in order to evaluate their decision of selecting the optimum freight mode. Lastly, the study also entails the exporters‟ willingness to pay for improvements in their preferred attributes involved in the mode choice decision. Among the horticultural exports, since the mango remains the 2 nd largest fruit crop after citrus, Pakistan government encourages the private sector to enhance its export, especially to high value markets like Europe with the introduction of trade-friendly policies and institutional support, e.g. WeBOC 1 operations. Meanwhile, it is also important for the mango industry to look for new strategic options to strengthen its export competitiveness in such distant and high return markets. Therefore, in order to reorient the Pakistan mango industry towards a cost-effective export value chain, sea-freighting needs to be investigated as a case study whether it can be a viable option for mango exports to European market. Thus, in order to provide the growing literature, the empirical findings of this study would contribute valuable information for mango sector development‟s stakeholders and decision makers in designing appropriate policies to look for new windows not only for mango exports but also the future prospect of other agricultural exports and the national economy as well. 1 Web-Based One Customs (WeBOC) is an automated system utilized in Pakistan for the efficient clearance of trade consignments. It integrates various stakeholders involved in trade, such as agents, brokers, terminal operators, cargo handlers, and customs officials, in real-time. INTRODUCTION 7 1.5 Organization of the thesis This dissertation is organized into eight chapters. After this introductory chapter, chapter 2 describes the role of agriculture in Pakistan economy, and importance of mango exports in horticulture sector development. It also briefly reviews the mango export supply chain for EU market and major issues & challenges associated to it. Chapter 3 represents the framework of the research design, both types of data used in the study (primary & secondary) and descriptive statistics. After discussing the study area and sampling method in the field survey for primary data collection, descriptive characteristics of exporters, exporting firms, export marketing of Pakistan mango in EU market and its major competitors are presented at the end of the chapter. It is important to highlight here that different empirical approaches have been used for estimation purposes in the study according to the requirement of each research question under consideration. Chapter 4 provides a comprehensive understanding of the technical efficiency of Pakistan mango exports and its determinants, for three different markets, based on the estimations of data envelopment analysis and truncated regression. Profitability of mango exports in different markets and factors influencing it is assessed with the help of export margin analysis and ridge regression, in chapter 5. Chapter 6 addresses the results of discrete choice experiment for mango exporters‟ transport mode choice behavior for EU market. In choice modeling, by using the stated preference data, the conditional logit and mixed logit models are employed to estimate determinants of mode choice. Additionally, exporters‟ willingness to pay estimates for improvement in their preferred attributes is also presented. Chapter 7 examines the mango import demand system of European market, utilizing the time series data in the context of extra-EU 2 and intra-EU 3 imports. It also assesses the export competitiveness among the leading mango exporting countries in EU market by using different export indices. Finally, the last chapter highlights the summary, major findings and conclusion of the study. Based on findings of this research, it also illustrates some policy recommendations for mango sector‟s stakeholders & policy makers, and indicates the dimensions of future research. 2 The partner country is the non-EU country of origin of the goods, as defined under union customs legislation (EUROSTAT, 2023). 3 The partner country is the EU member state, from which the goods are dispatched to another member state for the arrival of the goods according to the trade contract (EUROSTAT, 2023). 8 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 2 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICULTURE AND MANGO SECTOR In this chapter, a general overview of Pakistan's economy and the contribution of major sectors in it, specifically the agricultural and horticulture sector is presented. In addition to it, challenges related to mango production and its export marketing, faced by mango growers and exporters due to unavailability of services and poor management are discussed. Lastly, Pakistan mango exports to the European market and its firm-related, quality control, logistic and policy level issues faced by exporters in exporting to this market have also been discussed. 2.1 Economy of Pakistan Pakistan lies in the geographical coordinates of 23.35°–37.05° North latitude and 60.50°–77.50° East longitude. It borders with the Hindukush mountains in the North and spans from the Pamirs in the Northeast to the Arabian Sea in the Southwest (GEOGRAPHY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). Being, a significant part of the Indian subcontinent, Pakistan stands at the convergence point of the Middle East and Southeast Asia. It shares its borders with Iran and Afghanistan to the West, China to the North, the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir to the Northeast, India to the East, and the Arabian Sea to the South (COUNTRY REPORTS, 2023). Pakistan's strategic location offers it a crucial position as a significant trade, energy, and transport corridor to energy-rich Central Asian countries, the Gulf States, and the nations in the East. This distinctive characteristic of Pakistan's strategic positioning opens up a realm of many trade opportunities (FINANCE DIVISION, 2019). Pakistan encompasses a total area of 796,095 km 2 , out of which, the total land encompasses 770,875 km 2 area & 25,220 km 2 of water (FAO, 2023). The country has abundant natural resources with diverse ecological and climatic zones. Predominant among Pakistan‟s natural resources are its arable land and water reserves (AGRICULTURE STATISTICS, 2016). Figure 2.1 represents the utilization of Pakistan‟s land; based on cultivated 4 , not available for cultivation 5 , forest, and other 6 areas. 4 Areas that are either sown at least during the reference year or the previous year, or sown at least once (Rabi & Kharif) during the reference year. 5 Areas which are not available for agriculture due to either being totally infertile or being occupied by infrastructure. 6 Others include cultural waste, current fallow, net area sown, and area sown more than once. OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 9 Pakistan, the 5 th most populous country (241.49 million) and the 41 st largest economy in the world, has maintained an average growth rate of 2.89% over the last five years (FAO, 2023). In 2023, the real GDP estimated was contracted by 0.6%, following a growth of 6.1% in 2022 and 5.8% in 2021 (WORLD BANK, 2023). This decline was influenced by floods causing substantial damage to crops and livestock, coupled with challenges in securing crucial inputs like fertilizers. The industry and service sectors were also affected by supply chain disruptions due to import restrictions, high fuel prices, and money borrowing costs, causing a dampening effect on private investments (WORLD BANK, 2023). Furthermore, Pakistan's economy continues to struggle with uncertainties arising from the global security situation, escalated inflation driven by a surge in food prices, noticeable contractions in large- scale manufacturing, lower-than-expected foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and a growing need for increased financing (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). At present, the real GDP of Pakistan registers a modest growth of 0.29%. The economy grappled with significant challenges, including macroeconomic imbalances, supply shocks, and the effects of a global economic slowdown, all of which subdued economic growth (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). The GDP at current market prices in 2023 amounts to USD 7 30,327 million, indicating a 7 Average exchange rate: 1 USD = 279.15 PKR (2023) and 204.56 PKR (2022) Figure 2.1: Percentage distribution of Pakistan’s land utilization Source: Agriculture department, GOP (2023) 10 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR substantial 27.1% increase compared to the 2022 value of USD 13,628.5 million (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). Pakistan's imports and exports have also displayed fluctuating trends (Figure 2.2). In 2021, imports surged to 18.0% while exports stood at 9.1%. However, by 2022, imports rose further to 22.5% while there was a modest increase of 10.5% in exports. Notably, in 2023, there was a slight decline in imports to 17.7% while exports maintained a consistent growth trend, reaching at 10.1% (PBS, 2023). The major sectors of Pakistan economy are agriculture 8 , industry 9 , and services 10 contributing 19%, 20%, and 61% on average, respectively, to the GDP (FINANCE 8 Agricultural sector includes trade of major and minor crops, livestock, fisheries and forestry. 9 Industrial sector is involved in trading of mining & quarrying, manufacturing at small and large scale, construction, and electricity & gas distribution. 10 Services sector encompasses transport, storage, communication, wholesale & retail trading, finance & insurance, public administration, defense, and S & P services division. Figure 2.2: Pakistan’s exports and imports as % of its GDP Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), 2023 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 11 DIVISION, 2019). As per PBS (2023), the services sector is the largest contributor to Pakistan's economy, comprising 58.6%, followed by agriculture at 22.9% and industry at 18.5%. Within the services sector, wholesale and retail hold the largest share of 18% of GDP. In agriculture, livestock dominates with a 62% share and an overall contribution of 14% to GDP. Manufacturing holds a 65% share of the industry and contributes around 13% to the overall GDP. The per capita GDP stands at USD 1,568 with 39.4% of the population living below the poverty line (3.6 USD /day) (FAO, 2023). Similarly, from the same report of FAO (2023), it was reported that Pakistan had historically faced a trade deficit issue in 2023, reaching USD 27.5 billion (0.7% of the GDP). Pakistan‟s exports amounted to USD 27.7 billion, capturing 0.13% of global exports, while imports totaled USD 55 billion, making Pakistan globally the 47 th largest importer. Textile exports account for 60% of total exports, and Pakistan ranks as the 4 th largest rice exporter globally, renowned for its Basmati rice. Imports consist of 75% capital goods & raw materials and 25% consumer goods. Energy imports make up a significant 35% of total imports, with indigenous oil production meeting 30% of domestic energy demand. Food imports have risen to USD 9 billion, half of which is accounted for by edible oil. Pakistan boasts an estimated livestock population of 225 million, generating a value addition of USD 19.7 billion in 2023 (FAO, 2023). As the 5 th largest milk producer, Pakistan yields a gross annual production of 67 million tons. The substantial livestock population also facilitates USD 950 million in leather exports, positioning Pakistan as the 4 th largest leather apparel exporter (FAO, 2023). Agriculture, among the leading sectors of Pakistan‟s economy, employs 37.4% of the country‟s workforce and plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security & supplying raw materials to the industrial sector (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). Agriculture significantly underpins the economies of least developing countries such as Pakistan, constituting a fundamental cornerstone of its economic structure. After United States, EU is Pakistan's second most important trading partner, accounting for 14.3% of Pakistan's total trade in 2020 and absorbing 28% of Pakistan's total exports (EUROPEAN COMMISSION, 2021). Pakistan ranks as the EU‟s 42 nd largest trading partner accounting for 0.3% of EU trade. Pakistan‟s exports to the EU are dominated by textiles and clothing, accounting for 75.2% of its total exports to the EU in 2020. The growth of Pakistan exports to EU has been 12 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR particularly fast since the award of EU‟s GSP+ 11 status to Pakistan in 2013. Due to this special status Pakistan benefits from almost duty-free access for four of its products across all the EU 27 member states on 91% of tariff lines. This special arrangement has resulted in a significant upsurge in Pakistan's exports to the EU, with a remarkable 165% increase since its award. In 2021-22, Pakistan's exports to the EU amounted to USD 9.2 billion (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). Pakistan's imports from the EU are mainly comprised of machinery and transport equipment (33.5%) as well as chemicals (22.2%). 2.1.1 Role of agriculture in Pakistan’s economy Agriculture holds the position of one of the largest sectors in Pakistan's economy (PBS, 2022), with the majority of the population directly or indirectly relying on it. This sector contributes approximately 20% to the GDP and when combined with agro-based products, contributes to 80% of the country's total export earnings (AGRI- PUNJAB, 2022). It is assumed to have a multifaceted role in Pakistan‟s economy, encompassing food security, poverty alleviation, industrial development, and economic growth. According to FAO (2023), covering an extensive area of 30.5 million hectares, agricultural land in Pakistan constitutes about 47% of the national territory, surpassing the global average of 38%. Within the agriculture sector, livestock holds a dominant share of 62%, followed by important crops (4.1%), other crops (3.3%), forestry (0.5%), and fisheries (0.3%). Pakistan experiences two major cropping seasons, Rabi 12 and Kharif 13 , with a total water availability of 72.7 million acre-feet (MAF). Over 82% of cultivated land is irrigated, while 18% relies on rainfed conditions. Approximately 60% of rainfed areas are dedicated to cultivating winter- season crops such as wheat, barley, etc. Wheat and rice, accounting for 37% and 11% of the total crop area, are the two major crops. Sugarcane and cotton contribute 0.9% 11 Under this EU‟s generalized scheme of preferences (GSP) program, eligible developing countries receive reduced tariffs or tariff-free access to the EU market for their exports. Pakistan receives substantial tariff preferences, primarily zero duties applied to around two-thirds of all product categories, through the GSP+ arrangement. 12 Rabi crops are sown from October to December and encompass crops such as wheat, mustard, tobacco, barley, etc. Harvesting usually begins from April and extends through June. 13 For Kharif crops, sowing typically starts in April and ends by June. Important crops are rice, cotton, maize and sugarcane, among others. Harvesting for these crops occurs between October and December. OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 13 and 0.3% to the GDP, respectively. According to FAO (2018), Pakistan held impressive rankings, standing at 4 th in cotton production, 5 th in sugarcane, 8 th in wheat and 10 th in rice production, respectively. For 2023, Pakistan‟s agriculture sector‟s growth was estimated at approximately 1.55%, primarily attributed to the strong performance of key crops such as wheat, sugarcane, maize, and the livestock segment. Conversely, the industrial sector exhibited a negative growth rate of -2.94%, with its performance heavily contingent on the manufacturing sector, constituting 65.0% of the industry. The services sector has consistently comprised the largest share of the GDP, contributing 58%, and experienced a modest growth rate of 0.86% in the same period (ECONOMIC SURVEY OF PAKISTAN, 2023). As reported by PBS (2023), Pakistan's GDP exhibited a fluctuating yet resilient trend across its economic sectors between 2018 and 2022 (Figure 2.3). The agricultural sector, contributing consistently around 21% to 23% of the GDP, displayed stability despite minor variations, hinting at potential advancements or enhanced productivity. Conversely, the industrial sector, maintaining a modest 18-20% share, showcased steady but restrained growth, while the services sector remained dominant, consistently contributing around 58-60% to the GDP. Notably, the GDP growth rates reflected a 6.1% increase in 2018, a dip to 3.1% in 2019, a contraction at -0.9% in 2020 due to external shocks, followed by resurgence to 5.8% in 2021, and sustained growth rate of 6.1% in 2022, indicating a swift recovery and economic resilience. This diverse sectoral contribution and recovery momentum underscore Pakistan's ability to meet challenges and rebound, with the services sector playing a stabilizing role amidst the varying contributions of agriculture and industry to the country‟s economic landscape. 14 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 2.1.2 Horticulture sector development Agriculture in Pakistan encompasses various sub-sectors, including food crops (wheat and rice), cash crops (cotton and sugarcane), horticultural crops (mangoes, citrus, dates, apples, etc.), pulses, livestock, and poultry. Horticulture, with its export potential, has become a high-priority sub-sector in Pakistan (BABAR, 2014). Mango production, among other horticultural crops, holds a prominent position due to its domestic demand and the high potential to contribute significantly to the country's exports (GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN, 2010; HUSSAIN et al., 2010). Mango (Mangifera indica L.), commonly referred to as the 'King of Fruits', holds the distinction of being the national fruit and ranks as the second most significant fruit crop cultivated in Pakistan in terms of both; cultivation area and production Figure 2.3: Contribution of economic sectors (%) in Pakistan’s GDP (2018-2022) Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), 2023 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 15 (GHAFOOR et al., 2009; MALIK et al., 2010). Nonetheless, among the diverse mango varieties cultivated in Pakistan, Chaunsa and Sindhri stand out as the two most popular ones. As a leading mango-producing country, Pakistan heavily depends on the export of premium-quality mangoes, particularly the white Chaunsa variety, which makes a significant contribution to its economy. During the summer season, domestic demand for mangoes in Pakistan is exceptionally high. It holds a prominent place in the country's food culture, contributing to its widespread popularity (BADAR et al., 2015-2019). According to FAOSTAT (2023), among the leading mango-producing countries worldwide, India retained its prominent position, producing 24.9 million tons of mangoes and accounting for 43.79% of the global production in 2021 (Table 2.1). Following India, China and Indonesia stood out, capturing 6.94% and 6.24% of the world mango production. Pakistan secured its place among the top producers, producing 2.6 million tons, contributing 4.69% to the world's mango production. In 2020, Pakistan's mango exports accounted for 2.16% of the global market, reaching a total value of USD 75 million (IMRAN et al., 2023). Notably, Mexico, Brazil, and Malawi also made substantial contributions. Table 2.1: Pakistan and other leading mango-producing countries (2021) Country Production (ton) Export quantity (ton) Export value (1000 USD) Share in world production (%) Share in world export (%) India 24,968,000 170,212 185,236 43.79 6.55 China 3,961,662 7,461 26,133 6.94 0.28 Indonesia 3,561,867 382 758 6.24 0.014 Pakistan 2,677,017 189,690 164,719 4.69 7.30 Mexico 2,441,495 429,391 506,151 4.28 16.53 Brazil 2,057,765 273,071 250,134 3.60 10.51 Malawi 1,696,121 520 1,602 2.97 0.02 Thailand 1,635,233 382,093 665,280 2.86 14.70 Bangladesh 1,458,554 1,136 3,187 2.55 0.043 Vietnam 1,439,272 96,000 286,000 2.52 3.69 Others 11,114,294 1,047,616 1,588,859 19.49 40.33 World 57,011,283 2,597,573 3,678,059 100.00 100.00 Source: Food and Agriculture Statistics (FAOSTAT), 2023 16 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 2.2 Mango production and its marketing system Pakistan stands as one of the world's major agricultural countries, benefitting from its favorable climate for the commercial production of diverse fruit crops. Approximately 37.1% of Pakistan‟s land is dedicated to cultivating crops of agronomic and horticultural significance. Interestingly, the total area under horticultural crops constitutes less than 6% of the cultivated land. The average farm size for various horticultural crops, ranging from floriculture and fruit nurseries to orchards, is 3.1 hectares. Province-wise analysis reveals that Punjab leads in both area and production, accounting for 47.4% and 63.2%, respectively. Balochistan follows with 13% in both categories, while Sindh contributes 25% in area and 14% in production. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) stands at 13% in area and 10% in production (SHAH et al., 2022). The present production ranking of major fruits in Pakistan is as follows: citrus, mango, date, apple, guava, banana, and apricot. Mango is primarily cultivated in Punjab and Sindh provinces. Pakistan mango season begins with Sindh's harvest in May and ends in Punjab in late August. Key varieties include Sindhri and Chaunsa, with additional types like Dosehri, Malda, Swarnarika, Langra, Siroli, Alphonso, Gulab Khas, Fajri, Golden, Anwar Ratol, and Began Phali; grown in various regions (PHDEB, 2005). In Punjab, significant quantities of mangoes are produced in major districts such as Multan, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Muzaffargarh, and Vehari. In Sindh, the primary centers of mango production include Tando Allahyar, Mirpur Khas, Naushehro Feroze, and Sanghar (MALIK et al., 2010; BADAR, 2015). Table 2.2 presents the province-wise and overall production of mangoes in Pakistan in recent years. It can be observed that Punjab consistently dominates in mango production, contributing significantly to the overall production. Sindh shows variability but has been maintaining a substantial contribution. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, while producing smaller quantities, contribute to the diversity of mango sources. The total national production has experienced fluctuations, with notable peaks in 2010-11 and 2021-22. According to PFVA (2023), 50% of mangoes from Pakistan are exported by sea, 35% by land, and 15% by air. OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 17 Table 2.2: Province-wise mango production (1000 tons) in Pakistan (2010-2022) Years Punjab Sindh Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Balochistan Pakistan 2010-11 1,503.20 381.30 2.90 1.10 1,888.50 2011-12 1,304.20 391.80 2.90 1.20 1,700.10 2012-13 1,280.20 396.10 3.00 1.10 1,680.40 2013-14 1,252.00 402.50 3.00 1.10 1,658.60 2014-15 1,313.60 399.20 3.00 1.10 1,716.90 2015-16 1,227.95 404.18 3.10 1.25 1,636.47 2016-17 1,375.03 404.87 3.05 1.14 1,784.09 2017-18 1,329.30 400.50 3.00 1.14 1,733.94 2018-19 1,330.17 387.88 3.32 1.31 1,722.68 2019-20 1,304.30 329.30 3.60 1.70 1,638.90 2020-21 1,321.46 386.97 3.60 1.78 1,713.81 2021-22 1,450.44 387.40 3.50 3.36 1,844.71 Source: Agriculture statistics of Pakistan (various issues) The mango production in Pakistan has undergone significant changes over the past decades (Table 2.3). Despite the reduction in cultivation area during 2015-20 compared to previous periods, the total production remained robust at 1,719.03 thousand tons. The impressive increase in yield during 2015-20, reached at an amount of 25.41 tons per hectare. This unexpected increase in productivity can be because of advancements in cultivation practices, technology adoption, the introduction of high-yielding mango varieties, or possibly change in the survey method adopted during this time period. Table 2.3: Pakistan mango cultivation area, production, and yield (2000-2020) Year Cultivated area (1000 hectare) Total production (1000 tons) Yield (tons/hectare) 2000-05 110.68 1,157.73 10.46 2005-10 166.24 1,760.04 10.58 2010-15 172.11 1,728.38 10.04 2015-20 67.63 1,719.03 25.41 Source: SHAH et al., (2022) 2.2.1 Pakistan mango supply chain The mango industry, similar to other agro-food industries in Pakistan, consists of diverse groups forming chains connecting input suppliers to final consumers. Profit is generated by linking businesses upstream with those downstream. In this process, these businesses influence the flow of products, information, and money in the value 18 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR chain. Broadly categorized as traditional, modern, or export supply chains, these chains are distinguished by the types of retailers and target markets they serve (BADAR et al., 2019). While these value chains operate independently to target their respective markets, they also coexist and collaborate to fulfill demand and supply gaps. In developing countries, as highlighted by RUBEN et al. (2007) and TRIENEKENS (2011), these three types of chains are common. Traditional value chains dominate the mango industry in Pakistan, with the majority of production flowing through unorganized, fragmented, and relatively lengthy chains. In traditional chains, mangoes often pass through more than five middlemen before reaching to end consumers. Street vendors and roadside sellers, serving the needs of most consumers, are common in these chains. However, these traditional supply chains often lack adequate infrastructure, leading to poor fruit handling & management practices which result in low to medium value creation across various stages. Mango grading is based on a simple visual assessment of size, resulting in varying fruit quality from poor to good in terms of size, shape, color, cleanliness, and free from blemishes & damages. Prices, determined on daily basis demand and supply of the fruit, are much lower than in modern and export chains. Spot market transactions govern traditional chains, characterized by lower levels of coordination and poor information sharing among its actors. The advent of modern retail formats, including supermarkets, in Pakistan has given rise to modern value chains in the agro-food industry (GHANI, 2005; VORLEY et al., 2016). BADAR et al., (2019) study‟s findings indicate that these modern value chains are also making inroads into the Pakistan mango industry. Modern retailers such as mega stores, supermarkets, and special fruit shops cater to the needs of middle and high-income consumers. Currently, a smaller proportion of mangoes pass through these value chains, but their share is anticipated to grow as more consumers opt for them due to their high-quality produce and cleaner environment. Modern retailers typically have refrigerators and storage facilities to maintain fruit quality. The export value chain concentrates on the export market, responding to the demands of buyers from other countries. These chains typically handle relatively high-quality mangoes, graded and packed in various sizes. The level of value creation in export chains is comparatively high. However, despite this, Pakistan mangoes often fetch lower prices in international market. This is mainly attributed to their short shelf life, stemming from subpar postharvest practices and challenges in consistently meeting international standards (DUNNE & JOHNSON, 2010; XIMING SUN et al., 2011). OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 19 In all three chains, the product flows originate in the orchards where growers nurture mango trees from nursery seedlings, either raising them independently or acquiring them from fellow growers or private nurseries by applying inputs like fertilizers, pesticides, and water (see Figure 2.4). Typically, growers sell their standing mango crops to pre-harvest contractors at the maturing stage, relieving them of responsibilities such as harvesting and marketing. Contractors handle the harvesting, pack the mature unripe mangoes in wooden boxes, and transport them to commission agents in various wholesale markets across the country. Larger growers may take charge of harvesting and marketing operations themselves. In fruit and vegetable wholesale markets, commission agents conduct auctions of mangoes for wholesalers, typically in large lots. These lots generally consist of 30 to 50 crates, each weighing 10 to 12 kg. Wholesalers unpack the crates and use calcium carbide to initiate ripening. After three to four days, when the mangoes are ripened, wholesalers sell them in smaller lots or individual crates to retailers, who then transport the mango crates from the market to their outlets. Following re-grading, retailers sell mangoes directly to consumers. According to BABAR (2015), consumers often express dissatisfaction with the mango quality due to the use of calcium carbide for ripening, retailer malpractices, and ineffective government regulations, particularly in terms of food safety and high mango prices. In the case of export value chains, mangoes are directly transferred from growers and contractors to exporters. Exporters take charge of transporting mangoes from orchards to their export facilities, where high-quality graded mangoes undergo separation. Lower-quality mangoes are either discarded or sold at reduced prices in local markets. After grading, processing, and packing, exporters ship these mangoes by sea in containers to nearby markets like the Middle East, or by air to distant markets such as USA, UK and the EU. 20 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR Figure 2.4: Structure of value chains in Pakistan’s mango industry Source: Author‟s illustration 2.2.2 Mango export performance and its major destinations Pakistan's annual mango exports reach approximately 150,000 metric tons, with primary destinations in the Middle East, the EU, the US, Japan, Australia, and various other countries. This contributes around 90 to 100 million dollars annually to the national revenue. According to HAYDER (2023), the UAE stands out as one of the top export destinations for Pakistan‟s mangoes, with exports reaching millions of dollars during the three-month season. Furthermore, it's highlighted that Pakistan's mangoes contribute to less than 0.36% of China's total mango imports. In 2022, Pakistan exported only 23.95 metric tons of fresh or dried mangoes to China, with a total value of USD 55,605. This marked a decrease from 37.42 metric tons of value USD 127,200 in 2021 (OLGA, 2023). Nevertheless, Pakistan's mango industry is making concrete efforts to promote its fruit in China. Several proposed investments are aimed to improve orchard management, farm hygiene, cold chain transportation, and marketing. These endeavors are geared to enhance the Pakistan mango industry's capacity to effectively meet China's import requirements. OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 21 Table 2.4: Pakistan’s mango export to top ten countries (2022) Countries Quantity (ton) Value (1000 Rs) Value (1000 USD) Value (USD/kg) UAE 50,536 6,101,183 29,826 0.59 Kazakhstan 34,139 3,967,582 19,396 0.57 Afghanistan 13,972 1,429,358 6,987 0.50 Oman 12,939 1,566,244 7,657 0.59 UK 7,885 4,784,383 23,389 2.97 Uzbekistan 7,634 928,576 4,539 0.59 Qatar 5,668 943,191 4,611 0.81 Saudi Arabia 3,832 802,708 3,924 1.02 Bahrain 1,739 329,337 1,610 0.93 Germany 1,109 577,131 2,821 2.54 Others 6,454 2,835,326 13,861 2.15 Total 145,907 24,265,019 118,621 0.81 Note: Average exchange rate for 2022: 1 USD = Rs 204.56 Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), 2023 2.3 Pakistan mango export to the European market and its issues Pakistan's annual mango production capacity typically reaches around 1.8 million tons but it fluctuates due to the evolving climate and market conditions. Changes in weather patterns disrupt the normal life cycle of mangoes, affecting tree health and, consequently, fruit quality. In 2023, the crop faced challenges from fruit malformation, hoppers, and heavy rains at fruit ripening stage in certain areas, potentially compromising size and quality (HANIF, 2023). According to statistics of PFVA (2023), the mango crop has experienced adverse effects of climate change in the country, with a 20% reduction in anticipated production. The extended winter and delayed onset of summer are contributing to the decline in mango production, accompanied by a weakened ability to combat diseases in mango orchards. The PFVA suggests that research institutes and provincial agriculture departments should provide resources and awareness to mango farmers to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Similarly, low market prices and inadequate treatment facilities also impact mango production to some extent. 2.3.1 Farm-related issues and quality control In Pakistan, fruit cultivation faces challenges due to soil salinity and alkalinity, which limit water availability despite aiding nutrient access for plants. Concerns 22 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR arise from water contamination by urban and industrial waste, impacting both plant and consumer health. Flooding orchards for irrigation emerge as a key method to reclaim soil affected by salinity and alkalinity (WAQAR & NADEEM, 2013). Water shortages and the unavailability of diesel and electricity to operate tube wells are cited as additional factors (LATIF, 2022) for the decline in mango production. At farm levels, another major challenge is inadequate physical infrastructure, particularly in terms of road connectivity between farms and markets. Diseases play a significant role in diminishing orchard yields, with infected nurseries being a primary source of pathogen dissemination. Poorly regulated and uncertified nurseries contribute to various orchard problems. The lack of regulations results in untrained and non-technical nurserymen, compromising the provision of true-to-type plant seedlings to farmers and reducing the potential of elite fruit varieties. Exotic plant material, often not evaluated for diseases, poses risks to human health. Additionally, the unavailability of quality seeds emerges as a key limiting factor for achieving high yields and quality in major fruit crops (SHAH et al., 2022). Achieving success in fruit crops hinges on proper nutrition and effective pest management. Unfortunately, this aspect faces significant challenges, primarily stemming from a lack of education and technical support from extension departments and allied research organizations (AUJLA et al., 2007). The mango business in Europe poses challenges for both importers and exporters due to fruit quality issues, phytosanitary checks, and unpredictable supplies. For Pakistan, establishing a reliable supply is crucial, and the most profitable approach is to integrate it into a retail supply program. This strategy helps navigate the seasonal competition from major suppliers like Brazil and Peru. Mangoes also pose a high risk for fruit flies (Tephritidae), necessitating a phytosanitary document for exporting to the EU. Standard hydrothermal treatments (hot water treatment) are required before export. The stringent requirements in this phytosanitary certificate place additional pressure on plant health authorities. Authorities in producing countries must declare a region pest-free or conduct thorough checks on specific areas and product treatments. The insufficient capacity of local authorities for phytosanitary control impacts the export potential of fresh mangoes to the EU. 2.3.2 Logistical problems Despite significant increases in mango area, production, and exports over time, the performance of the mango industry in Pakistan remains sub-optimal. Technical challenges such as low productivity, inadequate production and post-harvest losses, OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR 23 the absence of modern cold storage and pack-house infrastructure, along with deficiencies in diseases & pest management contribute to the industry's struggles (CAMPBELL et al., 2009; COLLINS & IQBAL, 2010; NAFEES et al., 2013). Pakistan targets specific market segments in the EU, by exporting special mango varieties like Chaunsa, Sindhri and Anwar ratol. These unique varieties often rely on air logistics, and soaring air freight rates pose serious challenges for exporters. As per FAO (2022), mango exports from Pakistan had a 24% decline in shipments in 2022, amounting to 110,000 tons. This decrease is attributed to several factors such as harsh weather conditions during production stage, inadequate post-harvest fruit handling facilities and high international freight rates. With gradual logistics improvement, it can be anticipated that export supply will recover in the coming years. 2.3.3 Institutional and policy level challenges The inefficiency of public sector trade promotion institutions, particularly TDAP 14 and PHDEC 15 , has hindered the expected progress and development of the mango industry. The failure stems from a lack of innovative problem-solving approaches and inadequate coordination among promotional entities within the horticulture sector. Several causes contribute to this underperformance, including corruption, political interference, low wages and lack of strategic direction and leadership (TRTA, 2014). In 2017, efforts were made to restructure the organization to enable PHDEC to effectively pursue its dual strategy for developing and exporting Pakistan's horticulture products (AZAM & SHAFIQUE, 2017). Additionally, exporters are urging the custom department to adopt a more supportive approach towards trade, highlighting concerns about the department's alleged highhandedness and mismanagement of perishable shipments. Criticism is directed at the random selection of shipments by WeBOC officials for inspection, leading to the containers being physically checked on ground. Allegations suggest that even reefer containers are opened and left unplugged during this process, causing a thermal shock that deteriorates the quality of the fruit (TRTA, 2014). 14 Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) serves as Pakistan's public sector leading trade organization, overseeing trade policy initiatives, fostering export development across the industries, organizing trade delegations, and arranging local and international trade exhibitions. 15 Pakistan Horticulture Development and Export Company (PHDEC) supports the Pakistan‟s horticulture sector promotion. 24 OVERVIEW OF PAKISTAN AGRICUTURE AND MANGO SECTOR The inspection process for exports in Pakistan, mandated to be completed within 12 hours, often exceeds this timeframe, commonly taking between 24 to 48 hours. Custom officials conduct inspections, but in addition, the anti-narcotics force carries out independent inspections of shipments. Exporters are responsible for covering all costs associated with these inspections, despite the delays that can occur in the clearance process. According to the law, the primary role of the custom department in Pakistan is to verify and ensure that the required documentation for a consignment is complete and accurate. Additionally, they are responsible for collecting the appropriate fees and duties associated with the shipment. ABBAS (2023) revealed concerns among licensed owners of hot water treatment plants regarding a single company handling 75% of total mango exports, suggesting potential favoritism by department of plant protection (DPP) officials. Documents indicated that for exports to EU, only 26% (33,708 million tons) of the total mango exports (130,221 million tons) received treatment, while a majority of untreated mangoes were sent to the UAE, due to the lack of hot water treatment (HWT) facility. This situation emphasizes the necessity for stringent measures and adherence to international standards to protect mango export industry amid escalating phyto- related concerns. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 25 3 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS This chapter is composed of the general framework of the research design, selection of study areas, data collection procedure, the types of data collected, and the variables description, used later on for different analyses in the study. The background information of the sample exporters and other key actors of the mango export supply chain is also provided. By using both primary and secondary data, important descriptive statistics of sample exporters‟ socio-economic characteristics and mango export markets are presented to give an overview of the study. 3.1 Research design and data collection 3.1.1 Framework of the research design The overall analytical framework of the research is presented in Figure 3.1. The framework starts with the literature review, identification of the research problem, specification of the research questions & objectives, the theoretical conceptualization of the research, analytical methodology, selection of study areas, formalization of different sources of primary & secondary data, and ends with the research findings. This study is mainly based on Pakistan mango exporters‟ survey data to characterize their export performance for three different markets viz; Aggregate, Specialized–EU, and Diversified–EU (see Table 3.9 for definitions). Factors affecting their export efficiency and profitability are investigated for these markets by using different analytical approaches. Considering it is a high-value market, the import demand of Pakistan mango and its comparative advantage over other leading exporters to the EU market is investigated by using secondary data. To determine the role of logistics in Pakistan mango exports to the European market and exporters‟ behavior of transport mode choice, a comprehensive analysis of discrete choice experiment (DCE) is also performed by using the data collected through choice cards. 26 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Figure 3.1: Framework of the research design for the study Source: Author‟s illustration RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 27 3.1.2 Consulting with authorities and key stakeholders Before conducting the mango exporters‟ survey, preliminary discussion meetings were organized with the export-related institutional authorities, researchers, academicians, and subject experts to develop a policy-level understanding of the research at hand. Focus group discussions (FGD) were held with the mango growers, exporters, shipping companies, and the management of the Pakistan fruit & vegetable exporters‟ association (PFVEA) to determine the challenges in the Pakistan mango export supply chain, especially for the EU market. During this consultation process with the key stakeholders (both from public and private sectors), background information on the possible study areas and sample cities was collected. After incorporating the valuable suggestions of experts and business practitioners, a pilot survey was conducted to check the appropriateness of the questionnaire and choice cards. The survey questionnaire was then revised, edited, and updated to get the required information at the exporter level. 3.1.3 Selection and description of study areas Pakistan is one of the largest horticulture-producing countries with a 5% share in agriculture. In 2020-21, it produced around 14.4 million tons of different fruit and vegetables on 1.52 million hectares of land (MINISTRY OF NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY AND RESEARCH, 2021). Pakistan is the 5 th largest producer of mango in the world with over 200 varieties cultivation. Mango is the 2 nd largest fruit crop in Pakistan after citrus with it‟s a 4.5% share in world production (FAO, 2020). Punjab and Sindh together contribute about 89% of Pakistan‟s total mango production (GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN, 2021). Punjab accounts for 62% of mango acreage, Sindh accounts for 32% while the rest of the 6% is accounted for in other regions of the country. The share in the country‟s total mango production by Punjab and Sindh accounts for 67% and 26%, respectively (PAKISTAN ECONOMIC SURVEY, 2021). Within Pakistan, Punjab enjoys the highest yield rate of mango, 13 tons/hectare followed by Sindh, 6 tons/hectare. Multan, Muzaffar Garh, Rahim Yar Khan, Bahawalpur, Lodhran and Vehari are leading mango-producing districts in Punjab. In Sindh, the districts of Sanghar, Mirpur Khas, Tando Allah Yar, Tando Muhammad Khan, Jamshoro, and Hyderabad produce most of the mangoes (GOVERNMENT OF PAKISTAN, 2021). Given the importance of the aforementioned mango growing regions, a total of 9 mango-producing districts (4 out of Punjab and 5 out of Sindh) along with Karachi and Lahore were selected for the survey (Figure 3.2). Karachi and Lahore cities were selected because of being the country‟s two biggest wholesale markets of fruit & 28 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS vegetable trading. Another reason for selecting these two cities as study areas is that most of the mango traders (exporters) are based in these cities. Furthermore, because of their high business volume, these two wholesale markets are considered as the “origin point” of the daily market price of fruits & vegetables in the country (for local as well as export marketing). During the survey, it was also observed that most of the export processing facilities are situated in these two districts. 3.1.4 Sampling procedure and data collection Punjab and Sindh provinces were purposively selected to conduct field survey for this research, based on the information about their major mango growing areas and exporting hubs. A total of 11 districts from these two provinces (Figure 3.2) were visited and primary data was collected by using the pre-tested questionnaire during Figure 3.2: Study area map of Pakistan Source: Author‟s illustration based on Diva-GIS data and using QGIS 3.28.1 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 29 the time period of June to August 2014 (Pakistan mango season). Mango exporter was the sample respondent in this data collection. Additionally, some other key actors of the mango export supply chain like grower, commission agent, wholesaler, treatment plant facility owner, and clearing and freight forwarding agent were also visited to collect vital information about the overall export process. As a primary data source, the total sample size of this study is 100 mango exporting firms. In order to ensure the data quality, owners of these exporting firms or their representatives were interviewed in person by the author of this study and no enumerator was hired for the data collection. The dataset of these 100 mango exporters comprises of two types of exporters, 1) sole exporters; those who buy mango directly from the wholesale market (or orchard) for export purposes, and 2) grower-cum exporters; those who own an orchard, grow mangoes, and do the export. Grower-cum exporters mainly export their own product or sometimes buy from another orchard. Out of this total sample size of 100 exporters, 72 are sole exporters and 28 are grower-cum exporters. Furthermore, 20 shipping companies‟ representatives (13 airlines & 7 shipping lines) were also interviewed to exactly understand the perspective and role of international logistics services in an export supply chain of a perishable commodity like mango. By using the simple random sampling method, sample exporters were selected for the interview. As the study is designed to focus mainly on Pakistan mango exporters‟ efficiency for the European market, so only those respondents were included in the sample set who were exporting to the EU market, they can be either Specialized–EU exporters (exporting only to the EU market) or Diversified–EU exporters (exporting to non-EU market also along with the EU market). Exporters exporting only to non- EU markets were dropped at the selection stage. In the total sample size of 100 firms, 44 firms were found to be involved in Specialized–EU exports while 56 were doing Diversified–EU exports. Hence, to investigate the export performance of Pakistani mango exporters for the EU market (and other markets also), firm-level data was collected. Demographic and socio-economic characteristics of mango exporters (or firms) such as age, education, experience, labor, working capital, business volume, sources of procurement, target markets, mango treatment and its verification, loss & damage, sanitary and phytosanitary protocols, packing material, shipment clearing & freight forwarding procedures, institutional support, different types of costs at each step of the export value chain and export prices were recorded in the field survey. To determine the factors affecting the exporters‟ decision to use the transport, required data were 30 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS collected by conducting an in-depth Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE). As mango is a perishable commodity, special attention was paid to collect qualitative data also regarding mango characteristics, physiological changes during the shipping stage and its limitations, exporters‟ perception of logistical challenges, and future use of transport modes, particularly for distant markets like the EU. Secondary data regarding Pakistan‟s trade policies, historical trends in mango production & its exports to the EU market, other leading countries‟ exports to the EU, export price competitiveness, and mango re-exporting patterns within the EU market were collected from both national and international sources. Within Pakistan, statistical information was obtained by having a direct request to the Department of Agriculture (DOA), Agricultural Marketing and Information Services (AMIS), Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), Pakistan Horticulture Development and Export Board (PHDEB), Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), and Pakistan Customs. From international sources, data was mainly obtained by having internet access to the Food and Agriculture Statistics (FAOSTAT), Statistics Office of the European Commission (EUROSTAT), the World Bank (WB), and UN Comtrade. Additionally; recent research articles, statistical yearbooks, the Pakistan Economic Survey (PES), different progress reports, and bulletins were also reviewed to get the necessary information. After completing the data entry in MS Office Excel, necessary data cleaning and editing were done. A set of three different softwares is used in this research. Firstly, to conduct the choice experiment, choice cards were developed by using the software Ngene 1.1.2 before going for the field survey. Secondly, STATA 12 was utilized to estimate the discrete choice models. Lastly, R programming was used for the rest of the econometric analyses. Descriptive analysis is done to highlight the socio- economic characteristics based on the cross-sectional data obtained from the field survey and the secondary data. 3.2 Descriptive characteristics of exporting firms and shipping services In this section, the descriptive characteristics that define both the exporting firms and the integral shipping services opted by the exporters within the mango export industry are explored. A fundamental understanding of these characteristics is essential for illuminating the dynamics of the mango export sector. By observing key RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS 31 variables and their impacts, it aims to study the operational pattern of exporting firms and the essential role played by shipping services. 3.2.1 Demographic characteristics of sample exporters Frequency distribution of two important variables, age and exporter type, has been investigated first (Table 3.1). It is aimed to gain insights into the composition of firm owners and their propensity to engage as either sole exporters or grower-cum exporters. It is observed that the 36-49 age group has the highest percentage of sole exporters, indicating that individuals in this age range may be more inclined to operate as independent exporters. In contrast, the age group 49-62, stands out for a high proportion of grower-cum exporters, suggesting that older exporters prefer to export in group by sharing experience and resources. The average age of the exporters in the study sample is 46 years. Against the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference in the age of exporter types, the two- sample t-test yielded statistics of -1.84*, which rejected the null hypothesis, indicating that there exists a significant difference in the average age between exporter types. This result suggests that, on average, grower-cum exporters tend to be older (50.60) compared to sole exporters (45.47) within the mango export industry. This disparity in age distribution may be indicative of varying levels of experience, expertise, and strategies between these two groups. Table 3.1: Frequency distribution of sample exporters’ age (years) Age categories Exporter type Total (%) Sole (%) Grower-cum (%) (22-36) 21.33 20.00 21.00 (36-49) 48.00 20.00 41.00 (49-62) 22.67 44.00 28.00 >62 8.00 16.00 10.00 Mean of all groups 45.47 50.60 46.75 t-statistic -1.84 * Note: *, **, and *** indicate significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively. Source: Author‟s calculations The second demographic characteristic of the exporters is education. Exporters in both sole and grower-cum categories exhibit diverse educational qualifications. A higher percentage (45.33) of sole exporters has 5-10 years of education. In contrast, grower-cum exporters have a higher representation in the 10-16 educational years, 32 RESEARCH DESIGN AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS accounting for a substantial 76%, demonstrating that a large number of grower-cum exporters have pursued higher levels of education. The data reveals a notable discrepancy in the average education between sole and grower-cum exporters. Grower-cum exporters, with an average education level of 12.64, tend to have a higher educational qualification compared to sole exporters, whose average education level is 9.68. The significant test statistic for the two- sample t-test analysis confirms this finding against the hypothesis that there is no difference in the mean education level between these two groups. Table 3.2: Frequency distribution of sample exporters’ education (years) Education categories Exporter type Total (%) Sole (%) Grower-cum (%) (0-5) 18.67 8.00 16.00 (5-10) 45.33 16.00 38.00 (10-16) 36.00 76.00 46.00 Mean of all groups 9.68 12.64 10.42 t-statistic -3.58 *** Note: *, **, and *** indicate significance at 10%, 5%, and 1% levels, respectively. Source: Author‟s calculations Table 3.3 provides an in-detail breakdown of exporters‟ experience, categorized by exporter type. The experience categories span from 0-10 years to over 30 years. Notably, the majority of both sole and grower-cum exporters fall within the 0-10 years of experience category, with 41.33% and 72%, respectively. This indicates that a significant proportion of f