ZEU - Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung
Dauerhafte URI für den Bereich
Suchen
Auflistung ZEU - Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung nach Auflistung nach DDC "ddc:380"
Gerade angezeigt 1 - 6 von 6
Treffer pro Seite
Sortieroptionen
Item Central Asian integration as a way of guaranteeing regional security, economic growth: feasibility and prospects(2010) Najmitdinov, AhadhonNowadays, CA countries are facing serious challenges. Their industries are slowly recovering from the disruption of supplier-producer ties among former Soviet republics and East European states. The transformation from centrally-planned economies into market oriented ones requires absolute reconsideration of political and economic values. The focus towards industrialization has been implemented. For instance, Uzbekistan is among the very few former USSR countries which have developed motor-car and aircraft industries. The textile industry is another sector which is currently experiencing a boom. Expansion of Turkish and South Korean businesses and inflow of substantial investments from these countries can be observed currently in several CA states. Financial inflows from these countries are directed towards motor-car and textile industries as well as hotel and tourist infrastructure. CA is a potentially good area for foreign investors. Besides the industrial sector, the financial sphere is another field where fruitful collaboration with foreign countries could take place. The financial system in most CA states is still restructuring and developing. Significant human resources and comparatively much lower wage rates and costs of production make CA attractive for investing. In order to attract foreign investments, a number of preconditions have to be met: - Political stability and security must be achieved; - Trade barriers should be removed; - Transportation infrastructure within the region needs to be improved. Achieving these points implies integration! Integrated CA is more likely to be able to cope with challenges of today s insecure world. Moreover, integrated CA has better chances to assert its claims and interests, especially, CSR resources distribution, balancing interests of superpowers, and confronting external shocks and pressures. Adjacent to Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, integrated CA states will be equipped with additional policy options due to its extremely important strategic location and geopolitical influence. Nowadays, the population of CA exceeds 60 million inhabitants. Abolishment of trade and tariff barriers will simplify labor mobility and free flow of capital. Since it represents vast markets, the region will be an extremely favorable environment for growth. Industries of consumer goods will have a boost. With influx of investments, textile and food industries, which are currently largely underdeveloped, will experience a continuous boom. Furthermore, these sectors also have considerable export potential, since, raw materials necessary for these industries are locally abundant. Over time, the abundance of cheaper labor resources will be a competitive advantage of CA industries compared to foreign producers. This might become the locomotive of integrated CA economy and will have profound effects, economic as well as social. The demographic profile of the CA area is unique with a high proportion of young people. Here, industrial development is crucial for eliminating the unemployment problem. Besides rich energy resources, the CA region also has plentiful ways to transport them, thanks to its strategic location: to China, to the sea (through Iran), to Turkey (through Caucasian states) and to Russia. This will make the region extremely important and powerful. The source of inter-ethnic conflicts is mainly rooted in social and economic hardships. Mostly, ethnic conflicts occur between indigenous populations and minorities. Sometimes, they are fueled by political reasons and inter-state disputes. Integration implies dissolution of such disputes. In fact, even historical evidence supports these ideas. During the Soviet period, all CA republics were part of single country. Back then, ethnic clashes were far less frequent than in the last 20 years. Between CA states, competition for the leadership in the region can be observed at present. This is a destabilizing factor, since outside powers frequently take advantage of such inter-state disagreements. Integration will prevent these trends and lead to one single powerful actor instead of several competing states. Some might argue that it is very unlikely for countries with different ethnic composition to integrate and actually the integration will intensify inter-ethnic tensions. But, there are examples of multi-ethnic states, such as Switzerland and Canada, which are quite successful and where various ethnic groups peacefully coexist and form single multi-ethnic society. One of the biggest fears among nations of CA is that they could lose their sovereignty through integration. They are afraid that one nation will dominate or even suppress the others. Nevertheless, the experience of European nations clearly demonstrated that such a situation can be avoided. Structure and system can be achieved if the principles of equality decision-making and benefits distribution are followed. The uniqueness of the European integration is characterized by the fact that smaller states are enabled to impose significant influence in decision-making and, subsequently, to enjoy significant benefits (Seidelmann 2004, p 3). Another good example would be the USA, where there is no "discrimination" among the states. The experience of European Union, which clearly demonstrated evident advantages of integration, might serve as an example and stimulus for the unification processes in the CA region in future.Item Efficiency wages and negotiated profit-sharing under uncertainty(2009) Göcke, MatthiasIn this contribution a very simple model of profit sharing as an entrepreneurial instrument to create incentive-based productivity effects was presented. If efficiency gains result, a remuneration contract including shared profits as a premium pay in addition to the market wage is Pareto-superior: By sharing the efficiency gains, both parties, the firm and the worker, are better off compared to a standard wage regime. Furthermore, the efficiency gains due to sharing profits may result in stimulation of labour demand and employment, since the firm´s costs are reduced - though the worker receives a higher overall compensation. However, the focus of this paper is to combine efficiency effects of profit sharing with the impact of an option value which is based on the expected variation of stochastic future profits, if a long-term profit sharing scheme is ex-ante determined. An optimal remuneration policy was presented for two scenarios: First, the firm unilaterally offers a premium based on sharing profits in order to maximise the firm´s profits, and second, a bilateral Nash bargaining solution was computed. In both cases option value effects have to be considered by the firm when permanently determining an optimal instrumental level of the profit sharing ratio given to the worker. The inclusion of expected future revenue variations results in a lower worker´s profit sharing ratio - since a larger variation of revenue implies a higher redistribution of profits from firm to worker if a positive revenue change will occur in the future. In the case of a favourable future revenue development very high profits must be shared with the workers. In contrast, negative future outcomes are truncated, since future losses will not be shared because the firm uses its option to fire a worker in a loss situation, and since the worker has the option to leave the firm and to work elsewhere for the standard market wage. This is anticipated by the firm and results in a lower worker´s sharing ratio which the firm is willing to fix in a long-term wage contract if the sharing ratio is ex-ante determined and held constantly over a period of time.Item Grocery retailing in Germany : situation, development and pricing strategies(2009) Herrmann, Roland; Möser, Anke; Weber, SaschaOver the last four decades, the German food-retailing sector has been subject to continuous structural change. Most important has been the combination of increasing concentration with rising store size and the growing role of discounters implementing an aggressive EDLP pricing strategy. Thus, consumers have benefited from intensive price competition, despite the higher market share of leading food retailers. The analysis of market conduct, in terms of price formation and pricing strategies, reveals a typical situation of imperfect competition. The law of one price certainly does not hold for individual foods. Price levels and pricing strategies diverge substantially across firms and store types. There are successful retailers with an EDLP strategy, as well as others with a HiLo strategy. A major lesson to be learned from the German experience is that increasing concentration in food retailing does not necessarily imply that more market power is exerted at the expense of consumers. Competitive markets are compatible with a high level of concentration as long as a strong competitive fringe, for example discounters, challenges the large chains in food retailing.Item Grocery retailing in Poland : structural changes and foreign direct investment(2009) Herrmann, Roland; Möser, Anke; Weber, SaschaIt has been shown that structural change in grocery retailing has been particularly rapid given the transformation from a socialist to a market economy. In the first half of the 1990s, the number of stores increased sharply due to deregulation. In particular, the number of very small stores grew and then declined again, but nevertheless remained at a much higher level than under socialism. A parallel boom occurred in the case of large retail outlets, in particular hypermarkets and supermarkets. This positive development raised the overall sales area in Poland s retailing sector and was driven by high FDI from major European food-retailing chains. Thus, the Polish food-retailing system is characterised by a dual structure of small "other shops" and the growing proportion of large store types in the style of Western Europe. This development has been accompanied by increasing concentration ratios of returns per unit of sales area. Some findings on FDI in Poland´s retailing sector are striking. FDI in food retailing as a proportion of FDI in total retailing is very high, and major investors like Metro and Tesco ranked among the top ten foreign investors in Poland. As in the case of the food trade, FDI in food retailing is almost exclusively intra-EU. A more detailed analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in eight European countries - including Poland - yields several interesting results. The FDI stock in the retailing sector can be explained very well across countries and over time. As a percentage of GDP, FDI stocks are determined by the size of the retailing sector measured as a percentage of GDP, by a structural indicator of the retailing sector expressing the ratio between non-specialised and specialised stores, and by structural differences across countries. In all model specifications, the structural indicator is significantly different from zero and has a positive sign, indicating that countries with a more modern retailing structure attract more FDI than countries with a more traditional structure. Ceteris paribus, Poland attracted more FDI - normalised with the GDP - than all other countries except Slovakia. On the other hand, the more traditional retailing structure in Poland hampered inward FDI compared with some other European Countries like Germany or France and - among the CEECs - Hungary and Slovakia.Item When does it hurt? : the exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports(2009) Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Guenther, MartinThe paper deals with the impact of the exchange rate on the relationship among German exports and its main determinants. Our main aim has been to identify an exchange rate pain threshold for German exporters. We rely on a nonlinear pathdependent model in which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a so called "play area" (which is similar to the phenotype of play in mechanics). We capture this on-linear dynamics in a simplified linearized way and implement an algorithm describing linear play hysteresis into a suitable regression framework. Our non-linear model including play displays a much better performance than the standard linear model. Thus, the implications of some When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports hysteretic macro models concerning the dynamics of aggregate labor demand are corroborated empirically for trade variables as well. Moreover, we are able to show that the frequently mentioned notion of an exactly identified unique "pain threshold" of the $/€ exchange rate simply does not exist. Instead, we come up with an estimate of a path-dependent play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro for total German exports to the US. Taking into account that the borders of the play area and, thus, also the "pain threshold" (as the upper border) "today" depend on the historical path of the RER until "today", the location of the play area and the "pain threshold" is dependent on the observation point in time. For instance, at the end of our estimation period, our estimation results imply a "pain threshold" of 1.55 $/€ which continued to hold in October 2009. Compared to the more recent laments of business German business representatives and also to the more recent implicit assessment by the ECB this threshold is slightly but not substantially higher. On October 22nd, 2009, the dollar hit the 1.50 level, implying that we are currently not too far away from this threshold especially if we take into account that macroeconomic uncertainty has shrunk slightly but steadily since the turn-of-the-year 2008/09. However, laments appeared to be quite contained these days until very recently. The interesting question then is why this time "it was so different". We feel legitimized to preliminarily argue that maybe the awareness of appreciation of the euro has been overlaid and dominated by the public reception of the economic and financial crisis. But as in recent episodes of local maxima of the $/€ exchange rate, also the ECB is also now apparently becoming increasingly aware that a stronger euro must absolutely be avoided. Further euro strengthening in the remainder of the year will have a significant impact on 2010 economic growth, for instance, in export dependent Germany, and make the ECB s own pessimistic forecasts for this year even more probable. Hence, this may become a new era of the ECB s rhetoric on exchange rates because (i) it will be the euro area which will have to bear the burden of the global adjustment and (ii) voting majorities in the ECB Council have changed in the meantime to the benefit of former weak currency countries which are inclined to enact central bank interventions in the FX markets in order to weaken their home currencies. What does all this lead us? If, as a result of global imbalances, the external value of the euro increases even further, the demand for German exports will fall dramatically and (units of) German firms reduce or even stop trading internationally, then reentrance into international trade will be severely hampered, even if the euro will devaluate again in the future. So, once there will be a zero entry in any export good category, the concern is that it is going to be hard for exporters in this goods category to re-establish their export nodes and get back in. A German firm may even be likely to decide not to re-establish global trading networks again, or, at a minimum, it might take some time before it well be capable of doing so. Hence, the "ever rising euro" may have consequences that go well beyond the prediction of any standard economic model incorporating a unique exports equilibrium, when the presence of global trading networks and sunk costs of for German exporters is acknowledged.Item Wie wirken gemeldete SPS-Maßnahmen? : ein Gravitationsmodell des Rindfleischhandels der EU(2009) Kramb, Marc; Herrmann, RolandMit dem Abkommen über die Regelung zur Anwendung sanitärer und phytosanitärer Handelsmaßnahmen wurde der zunehmenden Bedeutung dieser besonderen Gruppe der Maßnahmen im internationalen Handelsverkehr Rechnung getragen. Mit der abnehmenden Bedeutung der tarifären Handelsbeschränkungen hat die Bedeutung der sanitären und phytosanitären Handelshemmnisse zugenommen. Die Quantifizierung der Wirkungen von sanitären und phytosanitären Maßnahmen ist wichtig bei der Beurteilung, ob die Maßnahmen den WTO-Regeln entsprechen. Eine vielversprechende Methode bei dieser Fragestellung sind Gravitationsmodelle. Durch das seit dem 01.01.1995 in Kraft getretene SPS-Abkommen der WTO und die Verpflichtung zur Veröffentlichung von SPS-Meldungen ist die Transparenz über sanitäre und phytosanitäre Handelsbeschränkungen deutlich gestiegen. Im Zusammenhang mit BSE und MKS ist es zu zahlreichen sanitären und phytosanitären Handelsmaßnahmen durch die einzelnen WTO-Mitglieder gegenüber der EU gekommen. Die zugehörigen SPS-Meldungen bildeten die Datenbasis für die hier vorgestellte Analyse mittels eines Gravitationsmodells. Die vorgestellten Schätzergebnisse der verschiedenen Schätzansätze sind mit denen des klassischen Gravitationsansatzes nicht direkt vergleichbar. Zum einen wird nur ein einzelnes Exportland - die EU - in seinen Außenhandelsströmen mit vielen Importländern betrachtet und dies über einen vergleichsweise sehr langen Zeitraum. Zum anderen ist der im vorliegenden Gravitationsmodell verwendete Datensatz nicht der klassische aggregierte Außenhandelsstrom, sondern der bilaterale Handelsstrom bei Rindfleischprodukten.Die hier durchgeführte quantitative Analyse des bilateralen Handels betrifft in erster Linie diejenigen Produkte, bei denen man nach den WTO-Dokumenten davon ausgehen muss, dass sie durch BSE-Handelseffekte betroffen wurden. Die Schätzungen der bilateralen Außenhandelsströme durch ein Modell mit fixen Effekten unter Berücksichtigung von länderpaarspezifischen Trends erscheinen äußerst zuverlässig: Die korrigierten Bestimmtheitsmaße sind vergleichsweise hoch und liegen in den Einzelgleichungen zwischen 0,64 und 0,83. Um der Autokorrelation in der für ein Panel vergleichsweise langen Zeitreihe Rechnung zu tragen, wurde diese in den individuellen Schätzungen herausgerechnet. Die Schätzungen zeigen bei den direkt mit Rindern, Rindfleisch und seinen Verarbeitungsprodukten in Verbindung zu bringenden Produktgruppen signifikante Effekte im Handelswert. So sinkt der Handelswert der EU-Exporte in die ausgewählten Importländer bei lebenden Rindern um 49 %.Bei den international wichtigeren Handelsgütern Rindfleisch, frisch, gekühlt und gefroren sinkt der Handelswert sogar zwischen 74 und 86 %. Es zeigt sich demnach, dass den Ankündigungen aus den SPS-Meldungen, die über die WTO veröffentlicht wurden, erhebliche Handelseffekte folgten. Dass jedoch der Handelseffekt deutlich geringer ausfällt, als bei einer vollständigen Umsetzung aller in den SPS-Meldungen genannten Maßnahmen zu erwarten gewesen wäre, lässt den Schluss zu, dass das Instrument der SPS-Meldungen entweder aufgrund der kurzen Biografie noch nicht richtig genutzt wird oder "vorsorglich" bei einer potenziellen Gefährdung auch für zu breite Produktgruppen handelspolitische Beschränkungen beschlossen werden. Diese werden dann möglicherweise später nicht oder nur teilweise genutzt. Aufgrund der hier dargestellten zahlreichen guten Ergebnisse sind SPS-Meldungen für die Zukunft als eine vielversprechende Quelle zur Ermittlung der tatsächlichen Handelseffekte von SPS-Maßnahmen anzusehen. Dabei ist jedoch der Analyseaufwand sehr groß, da die Meldeformulare wenig standardisiert sind und die Meldetätigkeit uneinheitlich erfolgt und oft unpräzise ist im Hinblick auf betroffene Produkte und die Dauer von SPS-Maßnahmen. Obwohl statistisch signifikante Effekte von BSE-bezogenen SPS-Meldungen auf den Rindfleischhandel ermittelt werden konnten, dürfen SPS-Meldungen und SPSMaßnahmen nicht gleichgesetzt werden. Die dargestellten ökonometrischen Ergebnisse und die Eigenheiten des WTO-Meldesystems legen nahe, dass nur unzureichende Rückschlüsse von SPS-Meldungen auf Art und Dauer von SPS-Maßnahmen möglich sind. Das tatsächliche Wissen über SPS-Maßnahmen in der Agrarhandelspolitik kann nur verbessert werden, indem das Meldeverfahren stärker standardisiert und die betroffenen Produktgruppen über international anerkannte Klassifikationen präzise benannt werden.