Determinants of foreign direct investment of OECD countries 1991-2001
It is the objective of this paper to identify the determinants that led to the increase in worldwide foreign direct investment during the 1990s. The paper also addresses the question whether these factors influenced exports differently. Therefore, using data from 22 countries reporting to the OECD, gravity models for bilateral FDI stocks/flows and ... exports are estimated, first in a cross-section setting for 1999 and then as a panel data set for the period 1991-2001. In order to control for EU-specific effects, a distinction is made between intra-EU25 observations and observations outside the EU25 area. Regressions are repeated with exports as a dependent variable in order to elaborate how far determinants of trade flows are identical or how far they differ. In the panel context, the results show that a change in total market size is an important aspect that leads both FDI and exports in the same direction. Relative market size influences only exports significantly. Stock market booms boost FDI but not exports. Political indicators and exchange rate changes suggest that exports are demand-driven while FDI is supply-driven. Overall, FDI and exports tended to flow relatively less abundantly to distant countries than to nearby countries over the period under consideration. This supports the idea of a complementary relationship between investment and trade. However, this trend is reversed for exports within the EU25 area.