Data for "Contingent Authoritarian Regionalism: From Autocratic Regime Challenges to CSTO Collective Signaling?"

Abstract

This dataset was developed to support the empirical analysis presented in the following article: Nasibov, Murad (2025). Contingent Authoritarian Regionalism: From Autocratic Regime Challenges to CSTO Collective Signalling? Problems of Post-Communism.

It offers a novel empirical foundation for examining how authoritarian regimes in the post-Soviet space engage in collective signalling through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO)—a Russia-led regional military alliance—especially during periods of heightened domestic political vulnerability.

The dataset has also been published with figshare: Nasibov, Murad (2024). Key moments of domestic challenges to authoritarian regimes and collective signalling within CSTO. figshare. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.26943946.v1

Project and Funding Information The dataset was created as part of the research project “Authoritarian Regionalism in the World of International Organisations: The Role of Legitimation and Power Politics in Eurasian Regional Organisations”, funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) [Project No. 444058835].

Project details: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/444058835?language=en

Scope and Structure Temporal Coverage: 2002–2021

Geographic Scope: Armenia (AM), Belarus (BY), Kazakhstan (KZ), Kyrgyzstan (KG), and Tajikistan (TJ) - CSTO member-states, excluding Russia.

Unit of Analysis: Country-year (N = 100 observations) Russia is excluded due to its exceptional status as a regional hegemon, and Uzbekistan is omitted due to its intermittent CSTO membership.

Variables Dependent Variable: CSTO Collective Signalling, measured as the annual count of joint statements issued by the heads of state and government, foreign ministers, and security ministers of the CSTO member-states. These statements were collected from the official CSTO website and reflect symbolic, rhetorical, or diplomatic output by the organisation.

⚠️ Important Note: CSTO statements are not necessarily issued in response to specific domestic events. However, their frequency is used in this study as a proxy for collective signaling—interpreted as regional efforts to display unity, reinforce regime legitimacy, or deter internal and external threats.

Independent Variables: All independent variables are dummy-coded (1 = present in a given year; 0 = absent), representing key types of domestic challenges to regime stability:

Cross-border war or military clashes Presidential elections Parliamentary elections Constitutional referenda Mass protests

Data Collection and Sources Data were manually collected between July and October 2023, using a multi-source triangulation approach to ensure accuracy and minimize bias, particularly in authoritarian information environments.

Sources for Dependent Variable (CSTO Statements): Official CSTO Website: https://odkb-csto.org (Press releases, declarations, summit summaries, statements)

Sources for Independent Variables (Events in Member States): Elections and Referenda:

Central Electoral Commission websites of: Armenia: https://www.elections.am Belarus: http://www.rec.gov.by Kazakhstan: https://www.election.gov.kz Kyrgyzstan: https://shailoo.gov.kg Tajikistan: http://www.khovar.tj

OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Reports: https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections

Protests and Armed Clashes: Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL): https://www.rferl.org BBC News Archives: https://www.bbc.com Eurasianet: https://eurasianet.org Human Rights Watch: https://www.hrw.org International Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org Global news aggregators: Reuters, The Guardian, Al Jazeera English

Supplementary sources: TASS (for triangulation), UN and OSCE reports when available

Priority was given to independent and international sources, especially for protest and conflict data, to counterbalance limitations of state-controlled media.

Analytical Use The dataset underpins a negative binomial regression analysis that explores the frequency of CSTO joint statements in relation to domestic political instability across member states. It supports a challenge-driven framework for understanding authoritarian regionalism, contrasting with traditional remedial approaches.

Contribution This dataset provides an original empirical resource for scholars interested in:

Authoritarian regional cooperation Eurasian regionalism and post-Soviet politics International signalling, rhetorical diplomacy, and symbolic politics Regime survival strategies and elite legitimation

It also contributes to the comparative study of non-democratic multilateralism, particularly regarding how regional organisations in authoritarian contexts function as platforms for legitimacy projection, elite reassurance, and regime consolidation.