Discussion Papers / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU)
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URN: urn:nbn:de:hebis:26-opus-13753
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Item 20th century precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment(2003) Becker, Stefan; Gemmer, Marco; Jiang, Tong; Ke, ChanqingThe 1990´s Precipitation at 16 stations in the Yangtze River Catchment within the context of 20th century time-series has been analysed. Linear trends, decadal fluctuations, occurrence of extreme years, and inter-annual variability of annual precipitation have been examined with special focus on 90s precipitation. Changes in monthly precipitation were analysed by decadal comparison, analyses of inner-annual variabilities and Mann-Kendall trend tests. No general increase or trend of the annual precipitation and its variability in the Yangtze river catchment has been detected. Decadal-scale fluctuations of precipitation are apparent for the whole time series. The 1990s were no exceptionally wet decade concerning annual precipitation in the context of 20th century. Nevertheless, it becomes obvious that the 90s take on an exceptional position, as at comparatively many stations more than one wet year (precipitation above 90% quantile of station's data) occurred during this decade. An interesting feature of this study is the observation of relatively large differences in seasonal trends. Some months became distinctively wetter at some stations in the 90s whereas others showed the opposite trend. Most stations display a slight or considerable increase of the inner-annual variability from the 80s to the 90s, however, the values in the 90s were often superseded in earlier decades. Most stations also show a decrease of the average precipitation in May in the 90s whereas an increase of the average precipitation in June and July in comparison to all or most previous decades is significant. The situation in August is diverse, but a significant increase of rainfall at many stations in months with maximum precipitation between 1950 and 1999 can be detected. It is noteworthy that the positive trends for the summer months are often preceded or followed by significant negative trends in the earlier and/or later months. This is an indication for the tendency towards a concentration of summer rainfall within a shorter period of time. The relevancy of this trend for the development of flood events is apparent and will be analysed in further studies.Item A statistical approach to detect cheating interviewers(2008) Bredl, Sebastian; Winker, Peter; Kötschau, KerstinSurvey data are potentially affected by cheating interviewers. Even a small number of fabricated interviews might seriously impair the results of further empirical analysis. Besides reinterviews some statistical approaches have been proposed for identifying fabrication of interviews. As a novel tool in this context, cluster and discriminant analysis are used. Several indicators are combined to classify "at risk" interviewers based solely on the collected data. An application to a dataset with known cases of cheating interviewers demonstrates that the methods are able to identify the cheating interviewers with a high probability. The multivariate classification is superior to the application of a single indicator such as Benford's law.Item Advertisements or friends? : Formal and informal recruitment methods in Tanzania(2009) Egbert, Henrik; Fischer, Gundula; Bredl, SebastianThe findings of our study in Mwanza can be interpreted on two different levels. Firstly, they can be read in the light of actors and managers who take decisions in a specific micro-setting influenced, e.g., by the legal form, the age, the size of their respective company. Secondly, results can be analyzed in connection with the general conditions of the labour market in Tanzania. The latter includes a reflection on how different recruitment methods relate to the make up of the supply side. In what follows we will first focus on the micro-setting and then conclude the paper with thoughts related to the labour market in Tanzania. In contrast to data for industrialized countries our investigation shows that in Tanzania formal methods are more often applied for high-ranking positions. Considering the size and legal form of the companies studied several interpretations are possible. A first interpretation is related to the observation that larger companies are significantly more often registered as limited companies. In limited companies managers are employed. They need to justify their decisions to capital owners. The use of formal recruitment methods - it can be assumed - is a managerial strategy to achieve (at least superficial) transparency in decision-making processes. Thus, the organizational structure of the company may relate to the choice of recruitment methods. In the case of large private companies external accountability is added to internal accountability. Advertising for personnel on a national level and therefore adhering to the rules of equal opportunities (as laid down in the Tanzanian labour law) may influence the public image of the company (and its products) positively. A second interpretation refers to small companies which are significantly more often run as sole proprietorships. In case of bankruptcy owners of these companies (unlike managers) are at risk to be liable with private capital. As a result they must have a vital interest in preserving their company´s existence. The employment of people who are trusted, e.g., friends or kin (cf. Trulsson 1997; Egbert 2001) can be seen as an attempt at reducing the risk of fraud. Moreover, informal recruitment channels may be cheaper for the company (cf. De Soto 1989). In case of less qualified positions they allow to scan and reduce the vast pool of job seekers with low or average education to a manageable group which fits the company requirements. Thus the vacancy period is shortened. If we analyze the results on the macro level we have to ask what we can learn about the make up of the Tanzanian labour market. In our study companies seek to fill highranking positions by newspaper advertisements on the national level. This is anindicator that regional labour markets do not provide sufficient or sufficiently qualified personnel. A lack of well-trained professionals in, e.g., management, IT, health and educational sectors is persistent and due to severe inadequacies in training institutions from the primary up to the tertiary level (United Republic of Tanzania 2000). These inadequacies include, among others, understaffing and low salaries, facilitators who in many cases have not received appropriate training themselves, large classes and insufficient infrastructure and equipment. In spite of government efforts to improve training and the mushrooming of private training institutions, only few graduates enter the job market with acceptable skills and knowledge (see also Byemelwa 2009). The placement of advertisements is thus an attempt to attract more applicants from a small pool which is not accessible by social networks only. Comparing vacancy periods for high- and low-ranking positions the patterns found in Tanzania are similar to those in industrialized countries. High-ranking positions are vacant for a significantly longer period than low-ranking positions. The acceptance of longer vacancy periods for high-ranking positions may be related to what has been revealed in recent fake certificate scandals in Tanzania. In some areas of the labour market (e.g., education) large numbers of applicants gained employment through forged documents. In 2008 the National Examinations Council of Tanzania warned private and public organizations to be wary of forgeries and to screen certificates carefully when hiring staff (Machira 2008). A longer vacancy period could then be the outcome of intensified processes of screening the submitted documents. As a consequence, transaction costs (information, search and screening costs) increase. Linking our results to the labour market discussions initially mentioned, different degrees and forms of segmentation become visible. Mobility between the primary and secondary tier of the labour market seems to be extremely restricted due to low standards at national educational institutions. The lack of well-trained workers in the primary sector weakens the impact social capital could have as a criterion for further segmentation. In the secondary sector, however, the state of being unemployed or employed is frequently determined by who you know. Social networks which often rely on stratifying criteria such as ethnicity, gender and religion contribute to the rise of further divisions within the lower tier. A combination of insights from labour market theory and human resource management prepares the avenue for an understanding of these fragmentations.Item Aktuelle Probleme der Energiewirtschaft und Energiepolitik in Zentralasien(2006) Trusin, Aleksej V.; Giese, ErnstDie Energieversorgung stellt in den Republiken Zentralasiens auf unterschiedliche Weise ein Problem dar, und dies in zunehmendem Maße. Seit die zentralasiatischen Republiken die einschneidende Rezession der 90er Jahre überwunden haben, wächst die Wirtschaft mit durchschnittlichen Wachstumsraten von 5 -10 %. Dieses Wachstum zieht einen verstärkten Energieverbrauch nach sich. Seit der Unabhängigkeit hat sich die Energieproduktion in den zentralasiatischen Republiken aber kaum verändert . Nach einer UNO-Studie soll der Energieverbrauch in der zentralasiatischen Region gegenüber dem Jahr 2000 bis zum Jahr 2020 um das 1,4 bis 1,7fache steigen (Aslanjan 2005). Um einen derartigen Zuwachs in so kurzer Zeit sicherzustellen, müssen die Produktionskapazitäten wesentlich erweitert werden. Dieses erfordert enorme Investitionen, die von den Republiken aus eigener Kraft nur teilweise geleistet werden können. Hinzu kommt, dass viele der vorhandenen Produktionsanlagen veraltet sind. Wie die gesamte Industrieproduktion erlebte die Energieproduktion Anfang der 90er Jahre einen Rückgang. Das Niveau von 1989 ist zumeist noch nicht wieder hergestellt. Ein zweites Problemfeld leitet sich aus dem Sachverhalt ab, dass die Energieressourcen räumlich ungleich verteilt sind und ein regionaler Ausgleich in Form von Kompetenzgeschäften wie zu Zeiten der Sowjetunion nicht mehr stattfindet. So leiden Kirgistan und Tadschikistan unter einem starken Energiemangel, der auf Grund fehlender Devisen nicht durch Importe behoben werden kann, so dass sie sich gezwungen sehen, das vorhandene hydroenergetische Potential stärker als bisher zu nutzen und entsprechende Wasserkraftwerke mit den entsprechenden Stauanlagen zu bauen. Von dieser Entwicklung sind vor allem Usbekistan und Turkmenistan betroffen, da ihnen das Wasser, das nun von den Oberanliegerstaaten der großen Flüsse (Amu- und Syrdarja) in der kalten Jahreszeit zur Hydroenergiegewinnung genutzt wird und entsprechend aus den Staubecken abgelassen wird, in der warmen Jahreszeit fehlt, da es von den Unteranliegerstaaten für den Bewässerungsfeldbau benötigt wird. Ein drittes Problemfeld, das mit der künstlichen Regulierung der Wasserabflüsse, dem Bau von Staubecken und Wasserkraftwerken verbunden ist, stellen ökologische Beeinträchtigungen dar. Auf der einen Seite treten im Winter an den Mittelund Unterläufen Überschwemmungen auf, so am mittleren Syrdarja in der Arnasaj-Senke (Usbekistan) und am unteren Syrdarja (Kasachstan), da die zur Regulierung des Bewässerungsfeldbaus errichteten Staubecken die Wassermassen, die von Kirgistan zur Hydroelektrogewinnung abgelassen werden, nicht zu bewältigen vermögen.Item Analyse der Präferenzen russischer Fachbesucher für ausgewählte Messeleistungen mit Hilfe der Choice-Based Conjoint-Analyse(2008) Möser, NataliyaSeit einigen Jahren steigen bei den führenden landwirtschaftlichen Fachmessen Europas die Fachbesucherzahlen aus Russland. Auch die Beteiligung der westeuropäischen Firmen an den russischen Messen hat zugenommen. Grund für diese Entwicklung ist die Erholung der russischen Agrarmärkte und als Folge das wachsende Interesse an Investitionsgütern und vor allem an Land- und Agrartechnik. Die Fachmesse spielt dabei als eine Präsentationsplattform für die Aussteller, eine Investition für Messeveranstalter und eine Dienstleistung für die Fachbesucher ohne Zweifel eine bedeutende Rolle. Das Ziel der empirischen Arbeit war die Analyse der Präferenzen russischer Fachbesucher einer landwirtschaftlichen Fachmesse für ausgewählte Messeleistungen mit Hilfe von Choice-Based-Methode. Die Erhebung der Daten erfolgte auf einer landwirtschaftlichen Fachmesse in Moskau. Im Folgenden werden die wesentlichen Ergebnisse der Analyse zusammengefasst, wobei auf die in der Einleitung erwähnten inhaltlichen Forschungsfragen eingegangen wird.Item Bandwagon voting or false-consensus effect in voting experiments? : First results and methodological limits(2008) Bischoff, Ivo; Egbert, HenrikIn an experiment designed to test for expressive voting, Tyran (JPubEc 2004) found a strong positive correlation between the participants approval for a proposal to donate money for charity and their expected approval rate for fellow voters. This phenomenon can be due to bandwagon voting or a false consensus effect. The social science literature reports both effects for voting decisions. Replicating Tyran's experiment and adding new treatments, we provide evidence for a false consensus effect but find no support for bandwagon voting.Item Bergbaubedingte Schwermetallbelastungen von Böden und Nutzpflanzen in einem Bewässerungsgebiet südlich von Tiflis/Georgien - Ausmaß und ökologische Bedeutung -(2005) Narimanidze, Eliso; Wichmann, Lars; Felix-Henningsen, Peter; Steffens, Diedrich; Schubert, Sven; Urushadze, Tengiz; Mishveladze, Boris; Kalandadze, BesoDurch Abspülung von Abraumhalden einer Edelmetallmine südlich von Tbilisi in Georgien wird der Fluss Mashavera stark mit extrem schwermetallhaltigen (Kupfer, Zink, Cadmium) Schwebstoffen befrachtet. Das Wasser des Mashavera wird über mehrere Kanäle in das Bewässerungssystem des Mashavera-Tals und des Poladauri-Tals eingespeist und gelangt per Furchenbewässerung auf die unterhalb des Kanalsystems gelegenen, landwirtschaftlich genutzten Flächen. Auf Grund der seit Jahrzehnten anhaltenden Kontamination des Bewässerungswassers wurden die bewässerten Böden des Mashavera-Tals und des Poladauri-Tals großflächig mit Schwermetallen belastet. Im Rahmen eines dreijährigen Forschungsvorhabens wurde die Art, die Verbreitung und das Ausmaß der Schwermetallbelastung, sowie ihre ökotoxikologische Bedeutung für die Nahrungskette im System Boden-Pflanze eines kontinentalen Klimaraums untersucht. Die Ergebnisse der Arbeit zeigen, dass für Oberböden des Untersuchungsgebietes eine großräumige, gravierende Belastungssituation mit Schwermetallen vorliegt. Die Schwermetallgesamtgehalte der Oberböden werden im Wesentlichen durch die Nutzungsart des Standortes und durch das Relief bestimmt. Die Flächen, die am längsten und intensivsten mit belastetem Wasser bewässert worden sind, weisen Konzentrationen bis 3.000 mg*kg-1 Cu, 2.500 mg*kg-1 Zn und 17 mg*kg-1 Cd auf. Die Belastungssituation nimmt hierbei generell zu in der Reihenfolge: (1) ackerbaulich genutzte Flächen, (2) zum Gemüseanbau genutzte Hausgärten und (3) zum Wein- und Obstanbau genutzte Böden. Die im neutralen bis schwach alkalischen Bereich liegenden pH-Werte der Oberböden bewirken zusammen mit den Gehalten an Carbonaten, organischer Substanz, Ton und Metalloxiden eine weitestgehende Immobilisierung der Schwermetalle. Trotz hoher Gesamtgehalte liegen daher nur geringe Anteile der Schwermetalle in der mobilen, NH4NO3-extrahierbaren Fraktion vor. Diese betragen für Cu und Zn weniger als 1 % der Gesamtgehalte und erreichen im Falle von Cd maximal 1,5 % der Gesamtgehalte. Allerdings werden bei hohen Cd-Gesamtgehalten auch die NH4NO3-extrahierbaren, d.h. mobilen Anteile zu einer ökotoxikologisch relevanten Größe. In Gefäß- und Feldversuchen wurde mit ausgewählten Böden des Untersuchungsgebietes der Schwermetalltransfer in Nutzpflanzen untersucht. Trotz niedriger NH4NO3-extrahierbarer Schwermetallgehalte wurde über die Pflanzenaufnahme eine deutliche Überschreitung der Toleranzschwelle des menschlichen Organismus für Cd festgestellt. Wir gehen davon aus, dass die Schwermetallanreicherungen in den Pflanzen im Untersuchungsgebiet wesentlich höher liegen müssen, als dies auf Grund der vorliegenden bodenanalytischen Daten zu erwarten wäre. Insbesondere für die Bewertung der Bioverfügbarkeit von Cd scheint die NH4NO3-Methode auf alkalischen Böden nicht geeignet zu sein. Das Untersuchungsgebiet ist die Region, in der Frischgemüse sowohl für die Selbstversorgungder örtlichen Bevölkerung als auch für die Millionenmetropole Tiflis/Tbilisi produziert wird. Es ist damit zu rechnen, dass das Ausmaß der Kontamination infolge der intensiven Bewässerung sehr stark und kontinuierlich ansteigen wird. Es ist daher zwingend erforderlich, für das Untersuchungsgebiet Handlungsstategien zu erarbeiten, um die Umweltkompartimente Boden und Wasser langfristig zu schützen und zu sanieren und um den Transfer von Schwermetallen in die Nahrungskette zu unterbinden.Item Central Asian integration as a way of guaranteeing regional security, economic growth: feasibility and prospects(2010) Najmitdinov, AhadhonNowadays, CA countries are facing serious challenges. Their industries are slowly recovering from the disruption of supplier-producer ties among former Soviet republics and East European states. The transformation from centrally-planned economies into market oriented ones requires absolute reconsideration of political and economic values. The focus towards industrialization has been implemented. For instance, Uzbekistan is among the very few former USSR countries which have developed motor-car and aircraft industries. The textile industry is another sector which is currently experiencing a boom. Expansion of Turkish and South Korean businesses and inflow of substantial investments from these countries can be observed currently in several CA states. Financial inflows from these countries are directed towards motor-car and textile industries as well as hotel and tourist infrastructure. CA is a potentially good area for foreign investors. Besides the industrial sector, the financial sphere is another field where fruitful collaboration with foreign countries could take place. The financial system in most CA states is still restructuring and developing. Significant human resources and comparatively much lower wage rates and costs of production make CA attractive for investing. In order to attract foreign investments, a number of preconditions have to be met: - Political stability and security must be achieved; - Trade barriers should be removed; - Transportation infrastructure within the region needs to be improved. Achieving these points implies integration! Integrated CA is more likely to be able to cope with challenges of today s insecure world. Moreover, integrated CA has better chances to assert its claims and interests, especially, CSR resources distribution, balancing interests of superpowers, and confronting external shocks and pressures. Adjacent to Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, integrated CA states will be equipped with additional policy options due to its extremely important strategic location and geopolitical influence. Nowadays, the population of CA exceeds 60 million inhabitants. Abolishment of trade and tariff barriers will simplify labor mobility and free flow of capital. Since it represents vast markets, the region will be an extremely favorable environment for growth. Industries of consumer goods will have a boost. With influx of investments, textile and food industries, which are currently largely underdeveloped, will experience a continuous boom. Furthermore, these sectors also have considerable export potential, since, raw materials necessary for these industries are locally abundant. Over time, the abundance of cheaper labor resources will be a competitive advantage of CA industries compared to foreign producers. This might become the locomotive of integrated CA economy and will have profound effects, economic as well as social. The demographic profile of the CA area is unique with a high proportion of young people. Here, industrial development is crucial for eliminating the unemployment problem. Besides rich energy resources, the CA region also has plentiful ways to transport them, thanks to its strategic location: to China, to the sea (through Iran), to Turkey (through Caucasian states) and to Russia. This will make the region extremely important and powerful. The source of inter-ethnic conflicts is mainly rooted in social and economic hardships. Mostly, ethnic conflicts occur between indigenous populations and minorities. Sometimes, they are fueled by political reasons and inter-state disputes. Integration implies dissolution of such disputes. In fact, even historical evidence supports these ideas. During the Soviet period, all CA republics were part of single country. Back then, ethnic clashes were far less frequent than in the last 20 years. Between CA states, competition for the leadership in the region can be observed at present. This is a destabilizing factor, since outside powers frequently take advantage of such inter-state disagreements. Integration will prevent these trends and lead to one single powerful actor instead of several competing states. Some might argue that it is very unlikely for countries with different ethnic composition to integrate and actually the integration will intensify inter-ethnic tensions. But, there are examples of multi-ethnic states, such as Switzerland and Canada, which are quite successful and where various ethnic groups peacefully coexist and form single multi-ethnic society. One of the biggest fears among nations of CA is that they could lose their sovereignty through integration. They are afraid that one nation will dominate or even suppress the others. Nevertheless, the experience of European nations clearly demonstrated that such a situation can be avoided. Structure and system can be achieved if the principles of equality decision-making and benefits distribution are followed. The uniqueness of the European integration is characterized by the fact that smaller states are enabled to impose significant influence in decision-making and, subsequently, to enjoy significant benefits (Seidelmann 2004, p 3). Another good example would be the USA, where there is no "discrimination" among the states. The experience of European Union, which clearly demonstrated evident advantages of integration, might serve as an example and stimulus for the unification processes in the CA region in future.Item Changing politics in Central Asia : the case of Kazakhstan(2010) Jetpysaeva, YelenaThe main reason for blaming the EU for not watching the regional reforms more often is based on the idea that the EU has a chance to stimulate and positively influence developments in Central Asia and Kazakhstan and to provide a democratic social model. Many analysts think the EU could use economic relations and business ties in the region for the sake of social development and vice versa arguing that social instability affects the EU business relations forcing Kazakhstani government to finally solve problems and execute necessary democratic reforms. For instance, Sebastien Peyrouse sees the following behavior: In theory, Europe could make use of its business potential to help spread the social model it incarnates. The EU could thus choose to privilege business relations that commit the participants to ensuring certain legal standards in economic activity and to strengthening the rule of law. This could be done, for instance, by giving preference to Central Asian companies that are committed to respecting the rights of local workers, to fighting corruption, promoting fair competition and good corporate governance, and recognizing the importance of contracts. The long-term objective would be to increase the social responsibility of Central Asian companies something that has indirect repercussions on the societies (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). Nevertheless, he also doubts that it can be easily done because of possible accusations by using its own doorstep to tax heavens particularly in Luxembourg - where Central Asian heads of state, their families and the oligarchs close to them deposit money siphoned off from national wealth (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). However, the history of the EU as a welfare union of states is more powerful than the use of accusations. Therefore, European politicians may successfully use economic ties, contacts, and obligations in long-term trade relations to influence the government to provide better social reforms to secure stability, as well as strengthen the power of the EU as an external player in the region. In this case, the economic topic should serve as a basis for the European strategy in the region. The EU therefore has every reason to implement forms of development assistance which, by helping European companies to establish themselves in the market, will play a key role in reducing Central Asia s social vulnerability and will contribute to the fight against poverty, which is currently the main issue that needs to be addressed by the international community and by regional governments (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). Continuation of this strategy that will enforce Kazakhstani government to provide the society with necessary reforms will gain a positive image for the union both within the region and globally. This also may help the EU, as an external player, to further obtain influence on governmental decision-making processes. It is obvious that social stability is the key to decrease economical risk factors and to improve the investment climate to benefit the whole development of a country or union. In this case, the EU strategy will profit the EU itself. Chances for a successful realization of such a plan are relatively high. Kazakhstan has been conduction fruitful business with EU Member States. According to the statistics, provided by the German Auswaertiges Amt, Germany takes place number eight in the list of Kazakhstan trading partners with a commodity turnover of EUR 5.7 billion in 2008, and it continues to grow (AUSWAERTIGES AMT 2009). In this area, Kazakhstan does not hide its ambitions; its Path to Europe program clearly states its intention to become one of the main communications hubs between Asia and Europe (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 9), according to Sebastien Peyrouse, who specialized on Central Asian trade and economic relations. The program called Path to Europe was signed by the President in August 2008 and supposed to be implemented during 2009-2011. According to evaluations made by the EU and Kazakhstani political analysts, the program will help to intensify and deepen the political collaboration between Kazakhstan and the EU. The introduction of the program has 3 stages and the basis for implementation of the program was prepared carefully. First of all, the president addressed his hopes for future profitable relations with the EU beforehand, in his annual message to the people of Kazakhstan. This message was used by Kazakhstani officials during political meetings to announce the future document. Finally, the document was signed and came into force in August 2008. The program seemed to be very promising. For instance, in March 2008, during the conference in the Netherlands, organized with the help of the Kazakhstan embassy, the ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Mainura Murzamadiyeva, familiarized more than 70 representatives of political, informational, and business layers of the Netherlands with the President´s message to the people of Kazakhstan, where he had announced the future program. Many of Dutch political scientists stated that the proposals the president made in his message will definitely intensify political cooperation between Kazakhstan and the EU, attract foreign investments, bring new technologies, and help to bring people of different regions close to each other. Analyzing the program Path to Europe that is celebrating its first anniversary this August, since it was signed in 2008, the following objectives are performed by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan: - Cooperation with the EU countries; - Creation of required conditions for technological cooperation; - Energy cooperation development; - Transport cooperation development; - Technical regulation and metrology cooperation; - Trade-economic relation strengthening and broadening; - Small and medium-sized enterprises development; - Living conditions improvement cooperation; - Humanitarian cooperation; - Kazakhstani legal base improvement and European experience application. Kazakhstan clearly stated that it expects the level of a strategic partnership with leading European countries in political, economic, and humanitarian spheres and a trade commodity turnover increase by 10% per year as well as a high level of exchange visits. The country also expects the EU to help to promote Kazakhstan internationally which will improve the investment climate and, therefore, the economic situation.However, priorities of the country remain unclear showing the country s reluctance to answer the questions on how to establish democracy and solve the following problems continuation of efforts on creation of conditions for democracy institutions development on the OSCE territory; transport and transit potential development; Eurasian transcontinental transport corridors development; ecological problems solutions; trust measures and regional security strengthening; non-military aspects of safety development under the OSCE activities including terror, extremism, drug trafficking, organized crime, weapons and people s sale fighting and Afghanistan reconstruction . To reach the declared goals and priorities, Kazakhstan needs the support of the EU and cooperation. Many political and business analysts provide recommendations suggesting to establish trade chambers and delegation sections related to trade and business that will monitor the activities, provide more legal support and consultations for small and medium-sized business in the region. Further, they suggest establishing more exchange programs for Kazakhstani businessmen to bring more business culture and experience. To monitor and evaluate the progress, the EU can establish clear and visible rating systems with distinct conditions and deadlines. In this case, evaluation committees and reports with full transparency are crucial. However, the first step, the EU should fulfill, is to admit that the time of soft power has ended and finally declare a clear political dimension. Without a distinctive view and goal, the EU will not succeed in representing a strong power and will not improve the policy that has been executing in Kazakhstan since signing the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in 1992.Item Climate risk management in Central Asian agriculture : A situation analysis(2012) Pawlowski, IraThe region of Central Asia, and in particularly the agricultural sector, is extremely vulnerable to climate change risks. The countries have started to develop adaptation strategies and climate risk management strategies, most of them described in the National Communications on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These and other efforts are presented and commented in this paper.