Discussion Papers / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU)

Dauerhafte URI für die Sammlung

Druckausgabe bis 17.2004: Diskussionsbeiträge / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung

URN: urn:nbn:de:hebis:26-opus-13753

Stöbern nach

Neue Veröffentlichungen

Gerade angezeigt 1 - 20 von 74
  • Item
    Die Landwirtschaft Zentralasiens im Transformationsprozess
    (2005) Trusin, Aleksej V.; Zitzmann, Katrin
    Die Wirtschaft Sowjet-Mittelasiens und Kasachstans funktionierte als fester Bestandteil des kommando-administrativen Wirtschaftssystems der Sowjetunion, das auf den Prinzipien einer Zentralverwaltungswirtschaft (ZVW) aufgebaut war. Nach Jahren der wirtschaftlichen Transformation in Richtung auf eine Markwirtschaft betrachten die neuen unabhängigen Staaten Zentralasiens den Transformationsprozess als weitgehend abgeschlossen.Bei genauerer Betrachtung lassen sich jedoch noch immer funktionierende Mechanismen des alten ZVW-Systems entdecken. Im Zuge der Transformation wurden diese Mechanismen umbenannt und den äußeren Umständen angepasst, behielten dabei aber ihre alte Lenkungs- und Verteilungsfunktion.Das Ausmaß des Einflusses der alten Mechanismen auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung variiert von Land zu Land. So sind sie nach wie vor in Turkmenistan und Usbekistan gut und in Kirgistan und Kasachstan, obwohl vorhanden, weniger erkennbar. In der Fallstudie über die Reformen in der Landwirtschaft in Usbekistan und Kirgistan sollen diese deshalb ausführlicher dargestellt werden.
  • Item
    Forests in the context of climate change in Kazakhstan
    (2012) Sehring, Jenniver
    Being a country with very low forest cover, forests are usually not in the focus of research and strategies of natural resource management in Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, forests play an important ecological role, especially in maintaining conditions for agriculture and hydrological regimes. The paper gives a description of the state of the resource and the administrative regulations on forestry in Kazakhstan. It outlines the impacts of climate change on forestry and the potential role of forests in adaption and mitigation are described. Finally, it takes stock of current forest policies, which are less based on climate change considerations but on the country´s green growth strategy.
  • Item
    Climate risk management in Central Asian agriculture : A situation analysis
    (2012) Pawlowski, Ira
    The region of Central Asia, and in particularly the agricultural sector, is extremely vulnerable to climate change risks. The countries have started to develop adaptation strategies and climate risk management strategies, most of them described in the National Communications on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These and other efforts are presented and commented in this paper.
  • Item
    Robustness of clustering methods for identification of potential falsifications in survey data
    (2011) Storfinger, Nina; Winker, Peter
    Falsifications of survey data might result in specific statistical properties of the generated data differing from those of the surveyed population. Clustering methods have been proposed to identify potential falsifications based on such indicators. As any statistical procedure, the classification might entail errors, i.e. misclassification of honest interviewers as potential falsifiers and failing to identify all falsifications as such. Typically, the robustness of a statistical classification procedure is studied using a large number of problem instances with known allocation to the groups. However, given the sensitivity of falsifications in survey data, the access to datasets comprising correctly identified falsifications is very limited. Consequently, a bootstrap based approach is introduced and applied to assess the clustering method. This approach also allows modifying settings such as number of interviews per interviewer or share of falsifications in the dataset and to study the impact of these settings on the quality of the assignments. Results based on a small real dataset with identified falsifications are reported.
  • Item
    A literature review of methods to detect fabricated survey data
    (2011) Bredl, Sebastian; Storfinger, Nina; Menold, Natalja
    This paper reviews literature dealing with the issue of detecting interviewers who falsify survey data. The most reliable method of detecting falsifiers is through face-to-face reinterviewing of survey participants. However, only a limited number of participants can usually be reinterviewed. A review of the present literature clearly indicates that reinterviewing is more effective if the reinterview sample is put together according to some indicators that might be based on metadata, survey data or interviewer characteristics. We examine existing literature with regard to the suitability of different types of indicators that have been used in this context.
  • Item
    Datenbasierte Indikatoren für potenziell abweichendes Interviewerverhalten
    (2011) Storfinger, Nina; Opper, Marie
    Die Datenqualität in Umfragedaten kann in vielen Fällen durch abweichendes Verhalten der Interviewer beeinträchtigt sein. Eine Fälschung liegt dann vor, wenn der Interviewer den kompletten Fragebogen oder Teile davon nicht erfragt, sondern die Antwort selbst produziert d.h. fälscht. Gefälschte Interviews können sich dabei in vielen statistischen Eigenschaften von echten Daten unterscheiden. Eine Methode, die diese Unterschiede ausnutzt, um die Aufdeckung der Fälschungen in Umfragedaten zu erleichtern, ist die Verwendung von sogenannten Indikatoren. Deren Berechnung basiert ausschließlich auf den erhobenen Umfragedaten und den im Fragebogen enthaltenen Fragetypen. Unter Berücksichtigung verschiedener Annahmen über die Fälschungsstrategien der Interviewer, wird in einem ersten Schritt gezeigt, wie sich eine Fälschung der verschiedenen Fragetypen in den Daten zeigt. In einem zweiten Schritt soll dann die Berechnung und Verwendung der daraus resultierenden Indikatoren bzw. Maßzahlen erläutert werden.
  • Item
    Determinants of primary school enrollment in Haiti and the Dominican Republic
    (2011) Gönsch, Iris
    Education is considered an important means of alleviating poverty and of improving an individual´s job and earnings prospects. Nevertheless, in Haiti and the Dominican Republic school enrollment is far from complete and shows notable regional variation. This paper analyzes determinants of primary school enrollment and investigates to what extent differences in schooling are due to individual factors compared to family or community influences. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for the two countries for two years each, logistic multilevel regression techniques are applied and the heterogeneity of the data sets is quantified using the median odds ratio (MOR). Results support earlier studies that identify the age of a child and family wealth as some of the most important explanatory variables. Combined with detailed descriptive analysis of the enrollment behavior, late enrollment is recognized as an important driver of low overall participation rates. Other influence factors do not have the same importance in both countries. The MOR indicates that educational enrollment status is determined to a relevant extent by household and community level characteristics and suggests an increase in importance of these higher levels over time.
  • Item
    Education for all and for life? : An introduction into primary school education in Senegal
    (2011) Gönsch, Iris; Graef, Steffen
    Generally, school participation in Senegal has achieved a lot of progress in recent years. However, several problems remain to be tackled for further improvement. Still, too many children never attend a school. An even more severe problem is the high rate of drop outs, especially when it comes to the transition from primary to secondary school. Here, the national grade six exam, higher costs of schooling and still limited availability of secondary schools are the main barriers. As a result, only a fraction of children completes the ten years of compulsory schooling which is considered necessary to have superior job perspectives. Another issue regarding absenteeism or incomplete formal schooling is the popularity of Quranic education in Senegal. Many parents prioritize religious (esp. Quranic) studies and do not want their children to attend a formal school. In many cases, those who try to combine formal and religious schooling sooner or later have to decide on whether to drop one or the other. Despite the existence of differences between rural and urban milieus no substantial gender disparity can be observed at the primary school level. At the secondary school level, however, girls education perspectives worsen so that completion of ten years of schooling is even less likely for girls than for boys. While the quantity of enrolled children has undoubtedly risen during the past years, the development of school quality is more ambiguous. Many school buildings are in a bad condition and pedagogical material is often lacking or hardly usable. After the summer holidays many school facilities face damages due to heavy rainfalls which lead to delayed starts and many schools cannot afford the maintenance costs. The quality of classes itself suffers from too big class sizes, multigrade classes and irregular attendance of pupils. In summary it can be stated that primary school education in Senegal has achieved some noticeable improvements. However, high drop out rates and rivalry with Quranic schooling lead to a low percentage of students with completed secondary education or higher. Since it is expected that formal schooling only pays off in economic terms after at least ten years of education, the achievement of a higher share of students with completed secondary school should be a reasonable task. The purpose of further study will thus be to shed more light on some of the reasons preventing school enrollment and completion. One task will consist in identifying the reasons why many children are never enrolled in school. The research project will proceed with a household survey in the region of Saint-Louis. This region nearly reflects average educational figures of the whole country and is very diverse regarding geographical conditions, population density and economic activity of the population. Data from this survey will allow to disentangle the role of supply and demand sides. According to our expectations and impressions gained from the qualitative field work, even in areas where public schools are available and accessible, not all children are enrolled in school. For this group, parents might not see the benefit of attending formal school or might favor rival activities such as work or attendance of a religious school. A related question is whether school enrollment then depends primarily on household characteristics. Families of a certain educational level and of specific professions could be more prone to sending their children to school. On the other hand, there seems to be heterogeneity within households. We will have to study why some children attend school while their siblings do not. Reasons for the higher drop out rates of girls will also be subject to further study.
  • Item
    Different background - similar strategies : recruitment in Tanzanian-African and Tanzanian-Asian companies
    (2010) Egbert, Henrik; Fischer, Gundula; Bredl, Sebastian
    The literature on enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa provides evidence that there are significant differences between companies run by members of the majority population and those run by members of minorities. Differences are frequently related to size, age, and certain success indicators. However, it remains unclear whether decisions concerning the acquisition of personnel also diverge. This paper outlines results of a questionnaire survey on recruitment methods of enterprises in Tanzania. The authors tried to discover differences in the recruitment strategies of Tanzanian-African and Tanzanian-Asian companies but found none. The interpretation is that companies operate in similar business environments and face comparable, exogenously given institutional restrictions. Thus, strategies of personnel recruitment seem to be alike.
  • Item
    The EU strategy for Central Asia and Kyrgyzstan foreign policy
    (2010) Momosheva, Nazira
    Over the last two years the European Union has changed its attitude towards the countries of Central Asia. The EU has strengthened its relationship with the region since the adoption of The EU and Central Asia: Strategy for a New Partnership by the European Council in June 2007. The strategy aims to strengthen relations in all spheres of cooperation. The objectives of the new strategy are reinforcement of political dialogue through regular meetings of EU and Central Asian Foreign Ministers, reinforcement of dialogue on human rights, cooperation in the areas of education, rule of law, advancement of trade and economic relations, energy, transport, environment, water as well as joint activities against common threats and challenges. The strategy is supported by a significant increase in EU assistance. For Kyrgyzstan, as one of the Central Asian countries, the presence in world politics is only possible through the participation in the international organizations on the global and regional level. The current geopolitical situation requires a balanced relationship with countries in near and far abroad and a well-adjusted policy of between different poles of influence. To support and advance its national interests at the sub-regional (Central Asia), regional (within the CIS, European and Asian areas) and global (via the system of international organizations) levels, Kyrgyzstan conducts targeted, multi-balanced foreign policy. The initiatives and activities commensurate with the real political and economic capabilities and the degree of involvement in international policy processes. In recent years the importance of the economic dimension of foreign policy has increased. This is connected with the objective to contribute to reforms and economic stabilization in the country and strengthen its position in foreign markets. The international relations of Kyrgyzstan traditionally mean close contacts with Central Asian states. The reasons are geographical neighborhood, related cultures, traditions, customs and common historical destiny, as well as the complementarities and interdependences of economies. The analysis of Kyrgyzstan´s cooperation with other CIS countries proves the necessity of these relationships. However, despite well-developed legal framework, the potential of the cooperation is not fully exhausted due to objective circumstances. Status and prospects of Kyrgyz relations with the developed countries show, that the conclusion of bilateral agreements and intensification of the investment in Kyrgyz economy would lead to the stable development to a market economy. The cooperation with Western countries is one of the most important foreign policy priorities of the Kyrgyz Republic. The most active relationships are maintained with such leading countries as the United States, Germany and France. However, despite the positive impact of these relations, the danger of partial or complete economic dependence cannot be ignored. Especially Kyrgyz-German relations are developing most actively, including declaratory stage and have reached the level of specific bilateral cooperation. With other Western States Kyrgyzstan has an only fragmented and unstable relation. Due to economic and financial difficulties and poor resource potential, Kyrgyzstan could not fully develop bilateral relations with many countries, in particular, with the Asia-Pacific region. However, the enhancement of cooperation with these states has good prospects for the republic. As a landlocked country, located on the periphery of the major routes, Kyrgyzstan seeks to create infrastructure on the basis of the alliance and partnership with Russia, Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and other CIS countries as well as through the development of transnational projects, linking the states of Eurasian continent and of the Asia-Pacific region. Since independence, the Kyrgyz Republic became a member of the leading international organization. This is a fundamental factor for the inclusion of the country into the global processes. Thus, in the foreign policy of the Kyrgyz Republic has already identified the priority areas, which are characterized by the principles of multilateralism. This allows the country to establish bilateral relations with many countries in the world without strict obligations due to the transitional period of development. The best option for the operation on the international arena is foreign policy, which enables the country to continue the policy of balancing between the poles of influence.
  • Item
    Protection mechanisms and services for young workers in Central Asia and the European Union
    (2010) Kulakhmetova, Anel
    The UN Convention on the rights of the child speaks not only about needs but about the rights of children from the moment of a birth. The Convention covers a wide scale of the rights consolidated in three basic categories: - The right to life, - The right for survival and development, - The right for protection and participation. The Convention provisions assume that children should live in the environment providing for realization of their rights starting from the right for a name and citizenship and ending with the medical and sanitary care and education. They have the right to shelter from torture, exploitation, arbitrary detention, and unreasonable deprivation of family care. Children have the right to participate in decisions concerning their lives and to participate in the life of the local community.The Convention is not the hierarchy of the rights and therefore, one right cannot possible have a higher priority in comparison with the other right. The Convention demonstrates that all rights of the child are equally important. Rights complement each other and provide for survival and development of the child. The countries-signatories to the Convention make a commitment to respect and ensure the whole complex of rights stipulated by the Convention for each child within the limits of the state jurisdiction without any discrimination (UN CONVENTION ON THE RIGHTS OF THE CHILD 1989, ARTICLE 2(1)). The state and the family are responsible for guaranteeing, respecting, and realizing the rights of the child. It is widely accepted that the state has a central and a primarily beneficial role in the protection of young people. Therefore, even if children experience extreme abuse or are neglect from their families the state authorities are supposed to provide comfort to those children. In the field of childhood studies there has been plentiful debate about the role of the state in children´s lives. Less attention is given to the ways in which the state is a source of risk for children (BOYDEN 2007, P. 240). The present research tries to show that with an effort to limit the influx of illegal migrants to their own countries many governments fail to realize their obligations towards migrant children. In many cases for reasons of national security they try to limit the rights of the child, putting at stake a notion of childhood as a life phase free from political blemish: in legal terms at least, children are the bearers of rights that cannot be compromised or alienated by circumstance.There are 192 countries of the world ratified the UN Convention on the rights of the child, including five Central Asian states. (ALSTON/TOBIN 2005, P. 10) Having joined the UN CRC, Central Asian countries have undertaken a wide range of obligations requiring serious revision of the current legislation, of the corresponding mechanisms for coordination of the child protection system and monitoring of the rights´ implementation. However, the UN Committee on the rights of the child in the concluding observations to periodic reports provided by the countries marks that there are still a number of problems in this area: - In countries of Central Asia the national legislation does not always fully comply with principles of the UN Convention on the rights of the child; - Lack of necessary financial and human resources, lack of the comprehensive approach in the child protection hinders the work of coordinating structures involved in the child rights protection (UNICEF INNOCENTI RESEARCH CENTER 2006, P. 31). - Lack of the statistical data on children, first of all, about the most vulnerable groups of children, hinders monitoring of the Convention implementation. Due to these existing problems the issues of children especially in need of assistance fall out of the focus of the governments. These children become «invisible» which means that the rights of these children will not be satisfied even at the level of basic needs such as sufficient nutrition, health care, school education and family care. The reasons causing such situations are lack of the data about children in the state agency of statistics, lack of the records about these children during development of the state program, duplication of functions of various departments and ministries.In 2006, countries of Central Asian initiated the Forum on child protection to overcome these problems. Issues of social policy, protection and inclusion of children, creation of the social protection system and overcoming of fragmentation were discussed. The Forum has demonstrated that it is an effective instrument for interstate cooperation and exchange of experience. Hereafter, it can serve as an impulse to conduct the integrated Forums (Forum on education, Forum on maternity and child health, Forum on child protection). The regional analysis of child protection systems shows that there is a fragmentation of the current child care systems. There is a multitude of actors, not necessarily well coordinated that have to respond to complex family situations and different child protection problems. Reforms of current child care systems into a continuum of services that provide individualized responses, rather than collectivist responses is one of the important regional lessons learned to strengthen the current system response. There are many implications for governments in this work: - They must be driving the vision for change and articulate operational plans, guiding principles for the reform as well as targets for the coming years. - Governments also need to be active in enforcing what are the core responsibilities of the state. This includes setting standards for the operation for the system, carry out gate-keeping functions, accreditation, provide support to planning, costing and budgeting at regional and local levels, defining the minimum package of services; and development of targeted social policies to support most vulnerable families - To overcome fragmentation and ensure proper coordination of the work, governments are also responsible for bridging gaps between sectors, coordination and facilitating institutional and professional capacity development. This includes regulate allocation of resources (decentralization with equity), define obligations of the different sectors (including responsibilities of the professionals encompassed in job descriptions), ensure continuum of services between the different actors (includes identifying missing services and functions) and improve professional competencies (job descriptions, training, lessons learned, sharing potential good practices, etc.) - Finally, governments need to take full responsibility for review of quality of services provided through monitoring of services (beyond financial monitoring), development of methods for result-based management, support to systems for data collection, provide opportunities for competition in service provision between state actors and NGOs. Having signed the UN Convention on the rights of the child, the governments of all Central Asian countries have undertaken to respect the rights of children, including the right to the proper standard of living. The governments of Central Asia should be aware of necessity to input funds in development of children because children are the future. Since 1998, the region enjoyed economic growth while the economic recession was left behind. Taking the economic growth into the account as well as reduction of the birth rate, today all Central Asian countries have a unique chance to invest in education and public health for the future of their children. In the long-term prospect these investments will allow the younger generation to make their own investment.
  • Item
    Changing politics in Central Asia : the case of Kazakhstan
    (2010) Jetpysaeva, Yelena
    The main reason for blaming the EU for not watching the regional reforms more often is based on the idea that the EU has a chance to stimulate and positively influence developments in Central Asia and Kazakhstan and to provide a democratic social model. Many analysts think the EU could use economic relations and business ties in the region for the sake of social development and vice versa arguing that social instability affects the EU business relations forcing Kazakhstani government to finally solve problems and execute necessary democratic reforms. For instance, Sebastien Peyrouse sees the following behavior: In theory, Europe could make use of its business potential to help spread the social model it incarnates. The EU could thus choose to privilege business relations that commit the participants to ensuring certain legal standards in economic activity and to strengthening the rule of law. This could be done, for instance, by giving preference to Central Asian companies that are committed to respecting the rights of local workers, to fighting corruption, promoting fair competition and good corporate governance, and recognizing the importance of contracts. The long-term objective would be to increase the social responsibility of Central Asian companies something that has indirect repercussions on the societies (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). Nevertheless, he also doubts that it can be easily done because of possible accusations by using its own doorstep to tax heavens particularly in Luxembourg - where Central Asian heads of state, their families and the oligarchs close to them deposit money siphoned off from national wealth (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). However, the history of the EU as a welfare union of states is more powerful than the use of accusations. Therefore, European politicians may successfully use economic ties, contacts, and obligations in long-term trade relations to influence the government to provide better social reforms to secure stability, as well as strengthen the power of the EU as an external player in the region. In this case, the economic topic should serve as a basis for the European strategy in the region. The EU therefore has every reason to implement forms of development assistance which, by helping European companies to establish themselves in the market, will play a key role in reducing Central Asia s social vulnerability and will contribute to the fight against poverty, which is currently the main issue that needs to be addressed by the international community and by regional governments (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 11). Continuation of this strategy that will enforce Kazakhstani government to provide the society with necessary reforms will gain a positive image for the union both within the region and globally. This also may help the EU, as an external player, to further obtain influence on governmental decision-making processes. It is obvious that social stability is the key to decrease economical risk factors and to improve the investment climate to benefit the whole development of a country or union. In this case, the EU strategy will profit the EU itself. Chances for a successful realization of such a plan are relatively high. Kazakhstan has been conduction fruitful business with EU Member States. According to the statistics, provided by the German Auswaertiges Amt, Germany takes place number eight in the list of Kazakhstan trading partners with a commodity turnover of EUR 5.7 billion in 2008, and it continues to grow (AUSWAERTIGES AMT 2009). In this area, Kazakhstan does not hide its ambitions; its Path to Europe program clearly states its intention to become one of the main communications hubs between Asia and Europe (PEYROUSE 2009, P. 9), according to Sebastien Peyrouse, who specialized on Central Asian trade and economic relations. The program called Path to Europe was signed by the President in August 2008 and supposed to be implemented during 2009-2011. According to evaluations made by the EU and Kazakhstani political analysts, the program will help to intensify and deepen the political collaboration between Kazakhstan and the EU. The introduction of the program has 3 stages and the basis for implementation of the program was prepared carefully. First of all, the president addressed his hopes for future profitable relations with the EU beforehand, in his annual message to the people of Kazakhstan. This message was used by Kazakhstani officials during political meetings to announce the future document. Finally, the document was signed and came into force in August 2008. The program seemed to be very promising. For instance, in March 2008, during the conference in the Netherlands, organized with the help of the Kazakhstan embassy, the ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Mainura Murzamadiyeva, familiarized more than 70 representatives of political, informational, and business layers of the Netherlands with the President´s message to the people of Kazakhstan, where he had announced the future program. Many of Dutch political scientists stated that the proposals the president made in his message will definitely intensify political cooperation between Kazakhstan and the EU, attract foreign investments, bring new technologies, and help to bring people of different regions close to each other. Analyzing the program Path to Europe that is celebrating its first anniversary this August, since it was signed in 2008, the following objectives are performed by the government of the Republic of Kazakhstan: - Cooperation with the EU countries; - Creation of required conditions for technological cooperation; - Energy cooperation development; - Transport cooperation development; - Technical regulation and metrology cooperation; - Trade-economic relation strengthening and broadening; - Small and medium-sized enterprises development; - Living conditions improvement cooperation; - Humanitarian cooperation; - Kazakhstani legal base improvement and European experience application. Kazakhstan clearly stated that it expects the level of a strategic partnership with leading European countries in political, economic, and humanitarian spheres and a trade commodity turnover increase by 10% per year as well as a high level of exchange visits. The country also expects the EU to help to promote Kazakhstan internationally which will improve the investment climate and, therefore, the economic situation.However, priorities of the country remain unclear showing the country s reluctance to answer the questions on how to establish democracy and solve the following problems continuation of efforts on creation of conditions for democracy institutions development on the OSCE territory; transport and transit potential development; Eurasian transcontinental transport corridors development; ecological problems solutions; trust measures and regional security strengthening; non-military aspects of safety development under the OSCE activities including terror, extremism, drug trafficking, organized crime, weapons and people s sale fighting and Afghanistan reconstruction . To reach the declared goals and priorities, Kazakhstan needs the support of the EU and cooperation. Many political and business analysts provide recommendations suggesting to establish trade chambers and delegation sections related to trade and business that will monitor the activities, provide more legal support and consultations for small and medium-sized business in the region. Further, they suggest establishing more exchange programs for Kazakhstani businessmen to bring more business culture and experience. To monitor and evaluate the progress, the EU can establish clear and visible rating systems with distinct conditions and deadlines. In this case, evaluation committees and reports with full transparency are crucial. However, the first step, the EU should fulfill, is to admit that the time of soft power has ended and finally declare a clear political dimension. Without a distinctive view and goal, the EU will not succeed in representing a strong power and will not improve the policy that has been executing in Kazakhstan since signing the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in 1992.
  • Item
    Humanities in transition : liberation of knowledge in Central Asia and the potential role of the European Union
    (2010) Jonboboev, Sunatullo
    Concluding this article, the importance of the rational discourse in modern classes and local forums in contemporary Central Asia should be mentioned again. The liberation of knowledge should be a permanent part of educational initiatives in this region, which is on its long journey from one party autocratic system to the democratic pluralistic one. During this transition some few things should be central. 1. All innovations on education, including the revising role of humanities should be based on the indigenous traditions and the long history of the region including Islamic, Jadid s tradition, but also soviet experiences in the last century (historically inherited German system). Furthermore, the modern international experiences on humanities should be not only superficially implemented from outside, but thoroughly integrated. The development of independent and creative thinking of the learners (students) should be always central for reform initiatives. 2. The revised concept of knowledge and cognitive system has to be based on new epistemology with broader perspective, including all the types of knowledge. These different types of knowledge include not just so called rationalistic one, which in fact often serves the interests of ruling classes, but also the experiences of all slices of societies, as well as the cross-civilization approaches, which open the way of dialog and communication with others. 3. It should be suggested to remove the dominating dichotomy type of thinking, escape Manichean dualistic concepts in order develop new bodies and research areas of humanities, based on pluralism (but not on secularism only). Communication and collaboration with the educational and research institutions of developed countries like EU and US would be essential for achievement of the desired goals and implementation of projects. During a conference on higher education in developing countries with focus on Muslim regions organised by the Institute for the Study of Muslim Civilization AKU ISMC in February - March 2005 in London one participant pointed out the importance of mentioning the indigenous Islamic educational heritage like memorization in Central Asian education. Regarding this remark, the questions arises, whether the memorization is the only real indigenous Islamic heritage in education. In this case what is the role of memorization in Muslim philosophy, arts, sciences, other creative professions? Was memorization essential for such Muslim scholars and encyclopaedists from the10th to the15th centuries like Avicenna, Abu Raikhan Biruni, Nasiriddin Tusi and Mirzo Ulughbek, artists like Kamaliddin Behzod or esoteric teachers such as Sufis like Jalaliddin Rumi etc.? Memorizing was not the only learning method in Muslim culture. According to his autobiography, Avicenna read Aristotle´s Metaphysics time, but not only for the sake of memorization, but mostly to find its adequate meaning. Every time time, when he understood the meaning of this book with help of Abu Nasr Farabi´s comments, he celebrated this event by sending charity to the people in mosque. The memorization would be essential, if one accepts Islam only as religion, but not as culture and civilization. Of course, memorization has an important role in education, but only at the beginning, in elementary and secondary schools, but not at the universities. It is a useful tool for teaching and performing of religious rituals, for poetry and other humanities, as well as for medicine (for example, the formulation of the treatments in poetic form as in Urjuza fi-t-tib,Ibn Sina). Memorization in Muslim culture was the way to refer to the other sources, as scholars used to cite by memory, not by direct copying of the sources. It is well-known fact, that humanities have played an important role in Muslim civilisations (Goodman, 2003) and they had a strong impact on other cultures, especially, western European. Many scholars agree with the statement, that Muslim humanistic traditions was transformed by Europeans and served as one of the sources of humanism and renaissance. Recent scientific works on humanities have redefined the disciplinary organization of teaching and research and have introduced wider variety and new areas, such as gender or minoritie issues, studies of cultural diversities etc. However, many American scholars nowadays are worrying about the decline of humanistic research (Kernan, 1997) and about the shift of curriculum from university to "multiversity" and to "demoversity". It is necessary to analyse, rethink and spread the positive experiences of Jadids and AKHP, as well as to motivate and encourage humanities teachers for innovations. Central Asian scientists in humanities have wide field for new research area. There are so many unknown (unthought) slices of culture (formal, informal), which never have become the object of research because of the political correctness, ideology, religious, ethnics or gender superstitions. Central Asian universities need to develop new research programs in humanities, similar to the well-known works by Martha C. Nussbaum (2000, 2004), Peter N. Stearns (1993) and others in USA. However, these kinds of works depend on investments, which cannot be provided by the current central state budget due to corruption, turbulent financial crisis and economic stagnation. Regarding this issue, one should think about new projects for collaboration and integration with EU. The courses in humanities with new approaches in arts, literature, sociology, philosophy, religions, political sciences, research in gender, cultural, religious and minorities issues, as well as analysis of such human behaviour like disgust, shame or hatred are important for liberation of thinking process in order to develop new generation of leaders in the region. Only the modern values, based on indigenous roots can help to build new and good society. However, this should not be implemented artificially. Currently several educational programs organised by EU for Central Asian countries, like Tempus, Erasmus Mundus etc. are working in the region. Last years the majority of Central Asian countries joined Bologna-process of education. The dialog between higher education institutions is important and the communicative ethics (the notion of J. Habermas) play a central role in this exchange. More effective support in form of scholarships, research programs, training projects for teachers and the students will have a very positive influence on Central Asia with regard to the broader mutual understanding and democracy promotion.
  • Item
    The European Union and Central Asia : challenges and prospects of cooperation
    (2010) Rakhimov, Mirzokhid
    The partnership of CA and the EU concerning political, economical, energy, transport and educational issues should be continued. The partnership will contribute the maintenance and development of peace, stability, cooperation and modernizations in the region. The EU and CA are an important and strong bilateral and multilateral cooperation. This is necessary for economic reforms and for attracting foreign aid and direct investment. Therefore, the EU and CA need to develop a concrete long-range partnership strategy. Regional cooperation in CA and Eurasia will also maintain peace and security in the region. First of all, regional organizations need to concentrate on further regional integration in CA to adequately meet the increasing processes of globalization. It is important to study the experience of the EU and ASEAN and to develop bilateral and multilateral relations with them. A well developed regional transport system in CA is essential for regional prosperity. Regional and international transport networks and substantial trade relations will facilitate foreign investment from foreign countries. CA republics consider the development of alternative regional transport communications as important for the national, regional and international strategy. As a result, a new transport communication connection between Asia and Europe has been developed.The EU and the NATO partnership with CA countries is important for the promotion of stability and security in CA nations. They are also needed to assist the pursuit of sustainable economic development and poverty reduction in the region. At the same time, the stabilization and restoration of Afghanistan s economy are key objectives. Due to different approaches and understandings of the situation in Afghanistan, there are many problems among the different actors including the NATO, the EU, OSCE and other international organizations. In future, the cooperation between CA nations and the EU as well as other international and regional organizations should incorporate the following aspects: Firstly, the EU and CA nations should continue their partnership on alternative transport corridors and pipelines as well as their cooperation in solving a wide range of problems, including ecological ones. Secondly, Afghanistan is an international and regional factor of security and stabilization. Therefore, it is important for the future of CA. Thirdly, the EU, the NATO, and OSCE need to have a regular consultation and joint projects in CA and Afghanistan. Fourthly, international organizations are best to work together with CA republics, Pakistan, Iran, and other neighboring countries. Fifth, the EU, the NATO, and OSCE need to have strong relations and maybe join projects on Afghanistan with Commonwealth Independent States, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Eurasian Economic Community, and Collective Treaty Security Organizations. Globalization and security challenges require a broader partnership and cooperation. It is necessary to enlarge the Central Asian - EU relations. A future strong partnership would promote stability and economic progress in CA and Europe.
  • Item
    Central Asian integration as a way of guaranteeing regional security, economic growth: feasibility and prospects
    (2010) Najmitdinov, Ahadhon
    Nowadays, CA countries are facing serious challenges. Their industries are slowly recovering from the disruption of supplier-producer ties among former Soviet republics and East European states. The transformation from centrally-planned economies into market oriented ones requires absolute reconsideration of political and economic values. The focus towards industrialization has been implemented. For instance, Uzbekistan is among the very few former USSR countries which have developed motor-car and aircraft industries. The textile industry is another sector which is currently experiencing a boom. Expansion of Turkish and South Korean businesses and inflow of substantial investments from these countries can be observed currently in several CA states. Financial inflows from these countries are directed towards motor-car and textile industries as well as hotel and tourist infrastructure. CA is a potentially good area for foreign investors. Besides the industrial sector, the financial sphere is another field where fruitful collaboration with foreign countries could take place. The financial system in most CA states is still restructuring and developing. Significant human resources and comparatively much lower wage rates and costs of production make CA attractive for investing. In order to attract foreign investments, a number of preconditions have to be met: - Political stability and security must be achieved; - Trade barriers should be removed; - Transportation infrastructure within the region needs to be improved. Achieving these points implies integration! Integrated CA is more likely to be able to cope with challenges of today s insecure world. Moreover, integrated CA has better chances to assert its claims and interests, especially, CSR resources distribution, balancing interests of superpowers, and confronting external shocks and pressures. Adjacent to Russia, China, Iran, and Afghanistan, integrated CA states will be equipped with additional policy options due to its extremely important strategic location and geopolitical influence. Nowadays, the population of CA exceeds 60 million inhabitants. Abolishment of trade and tariff barriers will simplify labor mobility and free flow of capital. Since it represents vast markets, the region will be an extremely favorable environment for growth. Industries of consumer goods will have a boost. With influx of investments, textile and food industries, which are currently largely underdeveloped, will experience a continuous boom. Furthermore, these sectors also have considerable export potential, since, raw materials necessary for these industries are locally abundant. Over time, the abundance of cheaper labor resources will be a competitive advantage of CA industries compared to foreign producers. This might become the locomotive of integrated CA economy and will have profound effects, economic as well as social. The demographic profile of the CA area is unique with a high proportion of young people. Here, industrial development is crucial for eliminating the unemployment problem. Besides rich energy resources, the CA region also has plentiful ways to transport them, thanks to its strategic location: to China, to the sea (through Iran), to Turkey (through Caucasian states) and to Russia. This will make the region extremely important and powerful. The source of inter-ethnic conflicts is mainly rooted in social and economic hardships. Mostly, ethnic conflicts occur between indigenous populations and minorities. Sometimes, they are fueled by political reasons and inter-state disputes. Integration implies dissolution of such disputes. In fact, even historical evidence supports these ideas. During the Soviet period, all CA republics were part of single country. Back then, ethnic clashes were far less frequent than in the last 20 years. Between CA states, competition for the leadership in the region can be observed at present. This is a destabilizing factor, since outside powers frequently take advantage of such inter-state disagreements. Integration will prevent these trends and lead to one single powerful actor instead of several competing states. Some might argue that it is very unlikely for countries with different ethnic composition to integrate and actually the integration will intensify inter-ethnic tensions. But, there are examples of multi-ethnic states, such as Switzerland and Canada, which are quite successful and where various ethnic groups peacefully coexist and form single multi-ethnic society. One of the biggest fears among nations of CA is that they could lose their sovereignty through integration. They are afraid that one nation will dominate or even suppress the others. Nevertheless, the experience of European nations clearly demonstrated that such a situation can be avoided. Structure and system can be achieved if the principles of equality decision-making and benefits distribution are followed. The uniqueness of the European integration is characterized by the fact that smaller states are enabled to impose significant influence in decision-making and, subsequently, to enjoy significant benefits (Seidelmann 2004, p 3). Another good example would be the USA, where there is no "discrimination" among the states. The experience of European Union, which clearly demonstrated evident advantages of integration, might serve as an example and stimulus for the unification processes in the CA region in future.
  • Item
    Migration, remittances and educational outcomes : the case of Haiti
    (2009) Bredl, Sebastian
    Using data from three Haitian communities the present paper investigates the effects of migration and remittances on educational outcomes. From a theoretical point of view, remittances can be supposed to have positive effects in poor households, as they alleviate budget constraints. Given the dominance of private facilities in the Haitian educational system and the high poverty rate prevailing in the country, budget constraints are likely to play an important role for educational outcomes. Migration in turn is associated with rising duties for children in the household and the loss of parental role models as well as with declining returns to schooling. Thus, migration is expected to affect educational outcomes negatively. The fact that the number of households in the LAMP dataset reporting to receive remittances is considerably higher than the number of migrant households, allows to disentangle the impacts of both phenomena in the empirical model. The results suggest a positive impact of remittances that is restricted to poorer households as predicted by theory. In contrast, no impact of the household head´s absence can be detected. The idea that budget constraints are an important factor concerning educational outcomes due to high poverty and a mainly not-for-free schooling system is supported by the strong influence of the asset index. However, considering the results of the estimate one also has to be aware of problems connected to the chosen empirical approach and the dataset. First of all, the imprecision in the measurement of the schooling variable as well as the relatively small number of observations in the sample lead to extremely vast confidence intervals of the estimators. Furthermore, it is questionable whether the condition of time invariance - that is crucial if the Cox model is applied - holds for all covariates included in the estimations. Especially assuming time invariance of the remittances recipient status seems problematic, albeit remittances flows to Haiti have been found to be relatively stable sources of income. The collection of panel data might be an appropriate way to overcome those difficulties, at least partially. It would allow for the verification of the time invariance assumption and - if the assumption does not hold - for the use of more advanced empirical approaches like a Cox model with time varying covariates as well as the inclusion of fixed household effects. However, collecting such data is supposedly an ambitious undertaking in the Haitian environment. Alternatively, one might collect data that includes the "remittances receipt history" of each household, similar to the migration and life history already included in the LAMP dataset. Finally, besides all concerns linked to the empirical approach, it is important to keep in mind that this paper focuses on the impacts of migration and remittances on the generation following the one of the migrants and the remittances senders. It does not consider the effects of those persons´ exit on the productivity and stock of human capital in their own generation, i.e. the effect of the so-called "brain drain". Thus, one must be aware that the issue this paper deals with only covers one of the multiple aspects playing a role when it comes to assessing whether migration and remittance.
  • Item
    When does it hurt? : the exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports
    (2009) Belke, Ansgar; Goecke, Matthias; Guenther, Martin
    The paper deals with the impact of the exchange rate on the relationship among German exports and its main determinants. Our main aim has been to identify an exchange rate pain threshold for German exporters. We rely on a nonlinear pathdependent model in which suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a so called "play area" (which is similar to the phenotype of play in mechanics). We capture this on-linear dynamics in a simplified linearized way and implement an algorithm describing linear play hysteresis into a suitable regression framework. Our non-linear model including play displays a much better performance than the standard linear model. Thus, the implications of some When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports hysteretic macro models concerning the dynamics of aggregate labor demand are corroborated empirically for trade variables as well. Moreover, we are able to show that the frequently mentioned notion of an exactly identified unique "pain threshold" of the $/€ exchange rate simply does not exist. Instead, we come up with an estimate of a path-dependent play area width of 24 US dollar cent per euro for total German exports to the US. Taking into account that the borders of the play area and, thus, also the "pain threshold" (as the upper border) "today" depend on the historical path of the RER until "today", the location of the play area and the "pain threshold" is dependent on the observation point in time. For instance, at the end of our estimation period, our estimation results imply a "pain threshold" of 1.55 $/€ which continued to hold in October 2009. Compared to the more recent laments of business German business representatives and also to the more recent implicit assessment by the ECB this threshold is slightly but not substantially higher. On October 22nd, 2009, the dollar hit the 1.50 level, implying that we are currently not too far away from this threshold especially if we take into account that macroeconomic uncertainty has shrunk slightly but steadily since the turn-of-the-year 2008/09. However, laments appeared to be quite contained these days until very recently. The interesting question then is why this time "it was so different". We feel legitimized to preliminarily argue that maybe the awareness of appreciation of the euro has been overlaid and dominated by the public reception of the economic and financial crisis. But as in recent episodes of local maxima of the $/€ exchange rate, also the ECB is also now apparently becoming increasingly aware that a stronger euro must absolutely be avoided. Further euro strengthening in the remainder of the year will have a significant impact on 2010 economic growth, for instance, in export dependent Germany, and make the ECB s own pessimistic forecasts for this year even more probable. Hence, this may become a new era of the ECB s rhetoric on exchange rates because (i) it will be the euro area which will have to bear the burden of the global adjustment and (ii) voting majorities in the ECB Council have changed in the meantime to the benefit of former weak currency countries which are inclined to enact central bank interventions in the FX markets in order to weaken their home currencies. What does all this lead us? If, as a result of global imbalances, the external value of the euro increases even further, the demand for German exports will fall dramatically and (units of) German firms reduce or even stop trading internationally, then reentrance into international trade will be severely hampered, even if the euro will devaluate again in the future. So, once there will be a zero entry in any export good category, the concern is that it is going to be hard for exporters in this goods category to re-establish their export nodes and get back in. A German firm may even be likely to decide not to re-establish global trading networks again, or, at a minimum, it might take some time before it well be capable of doing so. Hence, the "ever rising euro" may have consequences that go well beyond the prediction of any standard economic model incorporating a unique exports equilibrium, when the presence of global trading networks and sunk costs of for German exporters is acknowledged.
  • Item
    Advertisements or friends? : Formal and informal recruitment methods in Tanzania
    (2009) Egbert, Henrik; Fischer, Gundula; Bredl, Sebastian
    The findings of our study in Mwanza can be interpreted on two different levels. Firstly, they can be read in the light of actors and managers who take decisions in a specific micro-setting influenced, e.g., by the legal form, the age, the size of their respective company. Secondly, results can be analyzed in connection with the general conditions of the labour market in Tanzania. The latter includes a reflection on how different recruitment methods relate to the make up of the supply side. In what follows we will first focus on the micro-setting and then conclude the paper with thoughts related to the labour market in Tanzania. In contrast to data for industrialized countries our investigation shows that in Tanzania formal methods are more often applied for high-ranking positions. Considering the size and legal form of the companies studied several interpretations are possible. A first interpretation is related to the observation that larger companies are significantly more often registered as limited companies. In limited companies managers are employed. They need to justify their decisions to capital owners. The use of formal recruitment methods - it can be assumed - is a managerial strategy to achieve (at least superficial) transparency in decision-making processes. Thus, the organizational structure of the company may relate to the choice of recruitment methods. In the case of large private companies external accountability is added to internal accountability. Advertising for personnel on a national level and therefore adhering to the rules of equal opportunities (as laid down in the Tanzanian labour law) may influence the public image of the company (and its products) positively. A second interpretation refers to small companies which are significantly more often run as sole proprietorships. In case of bankruptcy owners of these companies (unlike managers) are at risk to be liable with private capital. As a result they must have a vital interest in preserving their company´s existence. The employment of people who are trusted, e.g., friends or kin (cf. Trulsson 1997; Egbert 2001) can be seen as an attempt at reducing the risk of fraud. Moreover, informal recruitment channels may be cheaper for the company (cf. De Soto 1989). In case of less qualified positions they allow to scan and reduce the vast pool of job seekers with low or average education to a manageable group which fits the company requirements. Thus the vacancy period is shortened. If we analyze the results on the macro level we have to ask what we can learn about the make up of the Tanzanian labour market. In our study companies seek to fill highranking positions by newspaper advertisements on the national level. This is anindicator that regional labour markets do not provide sufficient or sufficiently qualified personnel. A lack of well-trained professionals in, e.g., management, IT, health and educational sectors is persistent and due to severe inadequacies in training institutions from the primary up to the tertiary level (United Republic of Tanzania 2000). These inadequacies include, among others, understaffing and low salaries, facilitators who in many cases have not received appropriate training themselves, large classes and insufficient infrastructure and equipment. In spite of government efforts to improve training and the mushrooming of private training institutions, only few graduates enter the job market with acceptable skills and knowledge (see also Byemelwa 2009). The placement of advertisements is thus an attempt to attract more applicants from a small pool which is not accessible by social networks only. Comparing vacancy periods for high- and low-ranking positions the patterns found in Tanzania are similar to those in industrialized countries. High-ranking positions are vacant for a significantly longer period than low-ranking positions. The acceptance of longer vacancy periods for high-ranking positions may be related to what has been revealed in recent fake certificate scandals in Tanzania. In some areas of the labour market (e.g., education) large numbers of applicants gained employment through forged documents. In 2008 the National Examinations Council of Tanzania warned private and public organizations to be wary of forgeries and to screen certificates carefully when hiring staff (Machira 2008). A longer vacancy period could then be the outcome of intensified processes of screening the submitted documents. As a consequence, transaction costs (information, search and screening costs) increase. Linking our results to the labour market discussions initially mentioned, different degrees and forms of segmentation become visible. Mobility between the primary and secondary tier of the labour market seems to be extremely restricted due to low standards at national educational institutions. The lack of well-trained workers in the primary sector weakens the impact social capital could have as a criterion for further segmentation. In the secondary sector, however, the state of being unemployed or employed is frequently determined by who you know. Social networks which often rely on stratifying criteria such as ethnicity, gender and religion contribute to the rise of further divisions within the lower tier. A combination of insights from labour market theory and human resource management prepares the avenue for an understanding of these fragmentations.
  • Item
    Efficiency wages and negotiated profit-sharing under uncertainty
    (2009) Göcke, Matthias
    In this contribution a very simple model of profit sharing as an entrepreneurial instrument to create incentive-based productivity effects was presented. If efficiency gains result, a remuneration contract including shared profits as a premium pay in addition to the market wage is Pareto-superior: By sharing the efficiency gains, both parties, the firm and the worker, are better off compared to a standard wage regime. Furthermore, the efficiency gains due to sharing profits may result in stimulation of labour demand and employment, since the firm´s costs are reduced - though the worker receives a higher overall compensation. However, the focus of this paper is to combine efficiency effects of profit sharing with the impact of an option value which is based on the expected variation of stochastic future profits, if a long-term profit sharing scheme is ex-ante determined. An optimal remuneration policy was presented for two scenarios: First, the firm unilaterally offers a premium based on sharing profits in order to maximise the firm´s profits, and second, a bilateral Nash bargaining solution was computed. In both cases option value effects have to be considered by the firm when permanently determining an optimal instrumental level of the profit sharing ratio given to the worker. The inclusion of expected future revenue variations results in a lower worker´s profit sharing ratio - since a larger variation of revenue implies a higher redistribution of profits from firm to worker if a positive revenue change will occur in the future. In the case of a favourable future revenue development very high profits must be shared with the workers. In contrast, negative future outcomes are truncated, since future losses will not be shared because the firm uses its option to fire a worker in a loss situation, and since the worker has the option to leave the firm and to work elsewhere for the standard market wage. This is anticipated by the firm and results in a lower worker´s sharing ratio which the firm is willing to fix in a long-term wage contract if the sharing ratio is ex-ante determined and held constantly over a period of time.
  • Item
    Wie wirken gemeldete SPS-Maßnahmen? : ein Gravitationsmodell des Rindfleischhandels der EU
    (2009) Kramb, Marc; Herrmann, Roland
    Mit dem Abkommen über die Regelung zur Anwendung sanitärer und phytosanitärer Handelsmaßnahmen wurde der zunehmenden Bedeutung dieser besonderen Gruppe der Maßnahmen im internationalen Handelsverkehr Rechnung getragen. Mit der abnehmenden Bedeutung der tarifären Handelsbeschränkungen hat die Bedeutung der sanitären und phytosanitären Handelshemmnisse zugenommen. Die Quantifizierung der Wirkungen von sanitären und phytosanitären Maßnahmen ist wichtig bei der Beurteilung, ob die Maßnahmen den WTO-Regeln entsprechen. Eine vielversprechende Methode bei dieser Fragestellung sind Gravitationsmodelle. Durch das seit dem 01.01.1995 in Kraft getretene SPS-Abkommen der WTO und die Verpflichtung zur Veröffentlichung von SPS-Meldungen ist die Transparenz über sanitäre und phytosanitäre Handelsbeschränkungen deutlich gestiegen. Im Zusammenhang mit BSE und MKS ist es zu zahlreichen sanitären und phytosanitären Handelsmaßnahmen durch die einzelnen WTO-Mitglieder gegenüber der EU gekommen. Die zugehörigen SPS-Meldungen bildeten die Datenbasis für die hier vorgestellte Analyse mittels eines Gravitationsmodells. Die vorgestellten Schätzergebnisse der verschiedenen Schätzansätze sind mit denen des klassischen Gravitationsansatzes nicht direkt vergleichbar. Zum einen wird nur ein einzelnes Exportland - die EU - in seinen Außenhandelsströmen mit vielen Importländern betrachtet und dies über einen vergleichsweise sehr langen Zeitraum. Zum anderen ist der im vorliegenden Gravitationsmodell verwendete Datensatz nicht der klassische aggregierte Außenhandelsstrom, sondern der bilaterale Handelsstrom bei Rindfleischprodukten.Die hier durchgeführte quantitative Analyse des bilateralen Handels betrifft in erster Linie diejenigen Produkte, bei denen man nach den WTO-Dokumenten davon ausgehen muss, dass sie durch BSE-Handelseffekte betroffen wurden. Die Schätzungen der bilateralen Außenhandelsströme durch ein Modell mit fixen Effekten unter Berücksichtigung von länderpaarspezifischen Trends erscheinen äußerst zuverlässig: Die korrigierten Bestimmtheitsmaße sind vergleichsweise hoch und liegen in den Einzelgleichungen zwischen 0,64 und 0,83. Um der Autokorrelation in der für ein Panel vergleichsweise langen Zeitreihe Rechnung zu tragen, wurde diese in den individuellen Schätzungen herausgerechnet. Die Schätzungen zeigen bei den direkt mit Rindern, Rindfleisch und seinen Verarbeitungsprodukten in Verbindung zu bringenden Produktgruppen signifikante Effekte im Handelswert. So sinkt der Handelswert der EU-Exporte in die ausgewählten Importländer bei lebenden Rindern um 49 %.Bei den international wichtigeren Handelsgütern Rindfleisch, frisch, gekühlt und gefroren sinkt der Handelswert sogar zwischen 74 und 86 %. Es zeigt sich demnach, dass den Ankündigungen aus den SPS-Meldungen, die über die WTO veröffentlicht wurden, erhebliche Handelseffekte folgten. Dass jedoch der Handelseffekt deutlich geringer ausfällt, als bei einer vollständigen Umsetzung aller in den SPS-Meldungen genannten Maßnahmen zu erwarten gewesen wäre, lässt den Schluss zu, dass das Instrument der SPS-Meldungen entweder aufgrund der kurzen Biografie noch nicht richtig genutzt wird oder "vorsorglich" bei einer potenziellen Gefährdung auch für zu breite Produktgruppen handelspolitische Beschränkungen beschlossen werden. Diese werden dann möglicherweise später nicht oder nur teilweise genutzt. Aufgrund der hier dargestellten zahlreichen guten Ergebnisse sind SPS-Meldungen für die Zukunft als eine vielversprechende Quelle zur Ermittlung der tatsächlichen Handelseffekte von SPS-Maßnahmen anzusehen. Dabei ist jedoch der Analyseaufwand sehr groß, da die Meldeformulare wenig standardisiert sind und die Meldetätigkeit uneinheitlich erfolgt und oft unpräzise ist im Hinblick auf betroffene Produkte und die Dauer von SPS-Maßnahmen. Obwohl statistisch signifikante Effekte von BSE-bezogenen SPS-Meldungen auf den Rindfleischhandel ermittelt werden konnten, dürfen SPS-Meldungen und SPSMaßnahmen nicht gleichgesetzt werden. Die dargestellten ökonometrischen Ergebnisse und die Eigenheiten des WTO-Meldesystems legen nahe, dass nur unzureichende Rückschlüsse von SPS-Meldungen auf Art und Dauer von SPS-Maßnahmen möglich sind. Das tatsächliche Wissen über SPS-Maßnahmen in der Agrarhandelspolitik kann nur verbessert werden, indem das Meldeverfahren stärker standardisiert und die betroffenen Produktgruppen über international anerkannte Klassifikationen präzise benannt werden.