Discussion Papers / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU)

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Druckausgabe bis 17.2004: Diskussionsbeiträge / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung

URN: urn:nbn:de:hebis:26-opus-13753

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Auflistung Discussion Papers / Zentrum für Internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU) nach Autor:in "Gemmer, Marco"

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    20th century precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment
    (2003) Becker, Stefan; Gemmer, Marco; Jiang, Tong; Ke, Chanqing
    The 1990´s Precipitation at 16 stations in the Yangtze River Catchment within the context of 20th century time-series has been analysed. Linear trends, decadal fluctuations, occurrence of extreme years, and inter-annual variability of annual precipitation have been examined with special focus on 90s precipitation. Changes in monthly precipitation were analysed by decadal comparison, analyses of inner-annual variabilities and Mann-Kendall trend tests. No general increase or trend of the annual precipitation and its variability in the Yangtze river catchment has been detected. Decadal-scale fluctuations of precipitation are apparent for the whole time series. The 1990s were no exceptionally wet decade concerning annual precipitation in the context of 20th century. Nevertheless, it becomes obvious that the 90s take on an exceptional position, as at comparatively many stations more than one wet year (precipitation above 90% quantile of station's data) occurred during this decade. An interesting feature of this study is the observation of relatively large differences in seasonal trends. Some months became distinctively wetter at some stations in the 90s whereas others showed the opposite trend. Most stations display a slight or considerable increase of the inner-annual variability from the 80s to the 90s, however, the values in the 90s were often superseded in earlier decades. Most stations also show a decrease of the average precipitation in May in the 90s whereas an increase of the average precipitation in June and July in comparison to all or most previous decades is significant. The situation in August is diverse, but a significant increase of rainfall at many stations in months with maximum precipitation between 1950 and 1999 can be detected. It is noteworthy that the positive trends for the summer months are often preceded or followed by significant negative trends in the earlier and/or later months. This is an indication for the tendency towards a concentration of summer rainfall within a shorter period of time. The relevancy of this trend for the development of flood events is apparent and will be analysed in further studies.
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    Detection and visualisation of climate trends in China
    (2003) Gemmer, Marco; Becker, Stefan; Jiang, Tong
    Monthly precipitation and temperature trends of 160 stations in China from 1951-2002 have been analysed and interpolated. The Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to examine the monthly precipitation data. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95 and 99% confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. The number, distribution and direction of the trends varied from month to month. The detected trends were spatially interpolated by applying the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method. The spatial illustration of the detected precipitation and temperature trends enables a better understanding of climatic changes or variations in China within the last 50 years. This counts especially for the spatial structure of the trends. An agglomeration of precipitation trends can be observed in certain months including distinct trend belts especially in east and north-east China. Nevertheless, positive as well as negative trends can be noted simultaneously in each month. Negative precipitation trends are often followed by positive trends for the same area during the next month.In the meantime positive temperature trends can be detected in north, north-east and west China. They can be visualised for large regions in every month and explain a warming trend of northern and western China. Negative temperature trends can only be found from October-December with a relatively limited spatial distribution. The spatial interpolation of precipitation and temperature trend analysis results appears to be an adequate measure to give an understanding of the regional character of trends in China.
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    Visualisation of historical flood and drought information (1100 - 1940) for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Valley, P. R. China
    (2001) Chen, Jiaqi; Gemmer, Marco; Jiang, Tong; King, Lorenz; Metzler, Martin
    Due to very uneven distribution of precipitation in space and time, China is frequently affected by floods and droughts. These natural disasters have been a major drawback for the economic and social development in China throughout history. Since the beginning of the 1920s, Chinese scientists have compiled a remarkably good inventory of historical climate data. This data is suitable for the evaluation of extreme climate events and for the creation of climatological long-term models which may allow a prediction regarding the future distribution and availability of water. Thereby, the development of climate factors should be projected into the future, starting from the available climate test series in China, as well as those from the historical proxy data (regarding extreme climate events and their effect, such as floods or droughts). This paper is an introduction to the paleoclimatic research that has been carried out at the Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU) of the Justus Liebig University Giessen in 2000 and 2001. With the research in the Yangtze River Valley it is aimed to assess and analyse historical climatological events in order to interpret flood and drought events in history. Even more important is the sole of this data in the designation of flood prone areas and the magnitude of major climatic events. On the basis of the evaluation of this long-term climatic trend. Predictions about climatic changes can be made.