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Item European summer temperatures since Roman times(2016) Luterbacher, Jürg; Werner, J. P.; Smerdon, J. E.; Zorita, E.; Wagner, S.; Esper, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Bothe, O.; Xoplaki, E.; Yuan, N.; Zhang, H. [und andere]The spatial context is critical when assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatio-temporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM), together with estimates of the European mean temperature variation since 138 BCE based on BHM and composite-plus-scaling (CPS). Our reconstructions compare well with independent instrumental and proxy-based temperature estimates, but suggest a larger amplitude in summer temperature variability than previously reported. Both CPS and BHM reconstructions indicate that the mean 20th century European summer temperature was not significantly different from some earlier centuries, including the 1st, 2nd, 8th and 10th centuries CE. The 1st century (in BHM also the 10th century) may even have been slightly warmer than the 20th century, but the difference is not statistically significant. Comparing each 50 yr period with the 1951 2000 period reveals a similar pattern. Recent summers, however, have been unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30 yr periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last 3 decades (1986 2015 CE). A comparison with an ensemble of climate model simulations suggests that the reconstructed European summer temperature variability over the period 850 2000 CE reflects changes in both internal variability and external forcing on multi-decadal time-scales. For pan-European temperatures we find slightly better agreement between the reconstruction and the model simulations with high-end estimates for total solar irradiance. Temperature differences between the medieval period, the recent period and the Little Ice Age are larger in the reconstructions than the simulations. This may indicate inflated variability of the reconstructions, a lack of sensitivity and processes to changes in external forcing on the simulated European climate and/or an underestimation of internal variability on centennial and longer time scales.Item Millennium-length precipitation reconstruction over south-eastern Asia: a pseudo-proxy approach(2019) Talento, Stefanie; Schneider, Lea; Werner, Johannes; Luterbacher, JürgItem A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures(2017) Schneider, Lea; Smerdon, J. E.; Pretis, F.; Hartl-Meier, C.; Esper, J.Information about past volcanic impact on climate is mostly derived from historic documentary data and sulfate depositions in polar ice sheets. Although these archives have provided important insights into the Earth´s volcanic eruption history, the climate forcing and exact dating of many events is still vague. Here we apply a new method of break detection to the first millennium-length maximum latewood density reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures to develop an alternative record of large volcanic eruptions. The analysis returns fourteen outstanding cooling events, all of which agree well with recently developed volcanic forcing records from high-resolution bipolar ice cores. In some cases, however, the climatic impact detected with our new method peaks in neighboring years, likely due to either dating errors in the polar ice cores or uncertainty in the interpretation of atmospheric aerosol transport to polar ice core locations. The most apparent mismatches between forcing and cooling estimates occur in the 1450s and 1690s. Application of the algorithm to two additional and recently developed reconstructions that blend maximum latewood density and ring width data reproduces twelve of the detected events among which eight are retrieved in all three of the dendroclimatic reconstructions. Collectively, the new estimates of volcanic activity with precise age control provide independent evidence for forcing records during the last millennium. Evaluating the cooling magnitude in response to detected events yields an upper benchmark for the volcanic impact on climate. The average response to the ten major events in the density derived reconstruction is -0.60?°C?±?0.13?°C. Other last millennium temperature records from proxies and model simulations reveal higher cooling estimates, which is, to some degree, related to the very different high frequency variance in these timeseries.Item Sensitivity of European Temperature to Albedo Parameterization in the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM Linked to Extreme Land Use Changes(2018) Tölle, Merja H.; Breil, Marcus; Radtke, Kai; Panitz, Hans-JürgenPrevious studies based on observations and models are uncertain about the biophysical impact of af- and deforestation in the northern hemisphere mid-latitude summers, and show either a cooling or warming. The magnitude and direction is still uncertain. In this study, the effect of three different albedo parameterizations in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (v5.09) is examined performing afforestation experiments at 0.44° horizontal resolution across the EURO-CORDEX domain during 1986-2015. Idealized de- and af-forestation simulations are compared to a simulation with no land cover change. Emphasis is put on the impact of changes in radiation and turbulent fluxes. A clear latitudinal pattern is found, which results partly due to the strong land cover conversion from forest- to grassland in the high latitudes and open land to forest conversion in mid-latitudes. Afforestation warms the climate in winter, and strongest in mid-latitudes. Results are indifferent in summer owing to opposing albedo and evapotranspiration effects of comparable size but different sign. Thus, the net effect is small for summer. Depending on the albedo parameterization in the model, the temperature effect can turn from cooling to warming in mid-latitude summers. The summer warming due to deforestation to grassland is up to 3°C higher than due to afforestation. The cooling by grass or warming by forest is in magnitude comparable and small in winter. The strength of the described near-surface temperature changes depends on the magnitude of the individual biophysical changes in the specific background climate conditions of the region. Thus, the albedo parameterization need to account for different vegetation types. Furthermore, we found that, depending on the region, the land use change effect is more important than the model uncertainty due to albedo parameterization. This is important information for model development.Item SPOTting model parameters using a ready-made python package(2015) Houska, Tobias; Kraft, Philipp; Chamorro-Chavez, Alejandro; Breuer, LutzThe choice for specific parameter estimation methods is often more dependent on its availability than its performance. We developed SPOTPY (Statistical Parameter Optimization Tool), an open source python package containing a comprehensive set of methods typically used to calibrate, analyze and optimize parameters for a wide range of ecological models. SPOTPY currently contains eight widely used algorithms, 11 objective functions, and can sample from eight parameter distributions. SPOTPY has a model-independent structure and can be run in parallel from the workstation to large computation clusters using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). We tested SPOTPY in five different case studies to parameterize the Rosenbrock, Griewank and Ackley functions, a one-dimensional physically based soil moisture routine, where we searched for parameters of the van Genuchten-Mualem function and a calibration of a biogeochemistry model with different objective functions. The case studies reveal that the implemented SPOTPY methods can be used for any model with just a minimal amount of code for maximal power of parameter optimization. They further show the benefit of having one package at hand that includes number of well performing parameter search methods, since not every case study can be solved sufficiently with every algorithm or every objective function.