Glaciers and permafrost as water resource in Kyrgyzstan : distribution, recent dynamics and hazards, and the relevance for sustainable development of Central Asian semiarid regions
The Kyrgyz Republic is the only Central Asian state, where the water resources are fully generated on its own territory. The water originates from the often glacier covered mountain ranges and its abundance is a vital component for the agriculture and the production of hydro-electric power. The mountainous Kyrgyz Republic is an essential water tower for irrigated arable farming on arid plain territories. In view of the climate change discussion, this study investigates the water resources of the Naryn catchments in form of glaciers and permafrost (ground ice), and its relevance as water resource and hazard factor for the development of Central Asian semiarid regions.Detailed studies showed a significant decrease of the total glacier area in the up-stream Naryn area by 21.3% (1965 to 2010), due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing precipitation. The largest glacier shrinkage occurred in the Naryn range (28.9%) because of the dominance of small-scale glaciers on north-facing slopes. Continuing glacier shrinkage will result in water and energy deficiencies in the region. Strong glacier retreat can also produce glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which may cause hazards in downstream areas. The state of these glaciers needs to be monitored scientifically for a sustainable use of regional water resources, and for the economic planning.The current climate is also favorable for the development and existence of permafrost and ground ice. During the period 1930 to 2010, the mean annual air temperature was -7.6°C at an altitude of 3614 meters in the Naryn catchment. Detailed field studies proved, that permafrost is wide-spread above 3300 meters. However, permafrost islands can exist on steep northern slopes down to an altitude of 2700 meters. At altitudes of 3000 to 4000 meters, the active layer thickness is extremely variable depending of the location, exposure, slope and material. It varies from about 30 cm up to about three meters. Large cryogenic forms are connected genetically with massive ground ice. Small cryogenic forms are predetermined by seasonal freezing and can often be met outside the permafrost area.Besides water as the most important natural resource, the Kyrgyz Republic possesses an impressive glacierized mountain landscape that implies a considerable potential for tourism. A third national resource is gold that has been mined for years at Kumtor gold mines. However, several other findings of very promising gold occurrences exist. The development of tourism as well as of industry demands a safe infrastructure. Here, the existence of frozen ground may bring drawbacks in different ways, and also poses environmental problems.The economic development of the high mountain areas in Kyrgyzstan needs more detailed research of the glacier development as water towers, as well as the detailed study of the permafrost conditions. The underestimation of the role of the glacier development, the ground ice conditions and the frost action can lead to significant financial losses and risks, in mining works as well as in construction activities for the infrastructure in general and especially tourism development.In Central Asia water problems are on the rise. The Kyrgyz Republic exports water to irrigate the neighbouring states Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. To prevent conflicts, water allocation and use, and in particular the role of agriculture as major water user, have become very important questions in the development discourse in recent years, and will continue to be in the future. The results of this thesis may help to bring more detailed knowledge concerning water availability for agriculture and hydropower, but also for trans-boundary water management under climate change.
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