Tracking effects of extreme drought on coniferous forests from space using dynamic habitat indices

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems such as coniferous forests in Central Europe are experiencing changes in health status following extreme droughts compounding with severe heat waves. The increasing temporal resolution and spatial coverage of earth observation data offer new opportunities to assess these dynamics. Dense time-series of optical satellite data allow for computing Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), which have been predominantly used in biodiversity studies. However, DHIs cover three aspects of vegetation changes that could be affected by drought: annual productivity, minimum cover, and seasonality. Here, we evaluate the health status of coniferous forests in the federal state of Hesse in Germany over the period 2017–2020 including the severe drought year of 2018 using DHIs based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for drought assessment. To identify the most important variables affecting coniferous forest die-off, a series of environmental variables together with the three DHIs components were used in a logistic regression (LR) model. Each DHI component changed significantly across non-damaged and damaged sites in all years (p-value 0.05). When comparing 2017 to 2019, DHI-based annual productivity decreased and seasonality increased. Most importantly, none of the DHI components had reached pre-drought conditions, which likely indicates a change in ecosystem functioning. We also identified spatially explicit areas highly affected by drought. The LR model revealed that in addition to common environmental parameters related to temperature, precipitation, and elevation, DHI components were the most important factors explaining the health status. Our analysis demonstrates the potential of DHIs to capture the effect of drought events on Central European coniferous forest ecosystems. Since the spaceborne data are available at the global level, this approach can be applied to track the dynamics of ecosystem conditions in other regions, at larger spatial scales, and for other Land Use/Land Cover types.