Large Areas of Kirgistan are made up of the Parmir-Alay and the Tian-Shan mountain systems. They house large glacier systems that contribute considerably to the aestival water supply, especially of the densely populated Fergana Valley. These water resources are used for the generation of electricity and above all for agricultural irrigation. The Syra Darya river is the confluence of Naryn and Kara Darya river; it receives large quantities of melt water from glaciers and snow and directs them towards the Fergana Valley. Under the impact of the temperature rise induced by climate change, the glaciers are subject to an accelerated melting process. In this regard, knowing which fresh water resources are going to be available in the future is of great interest for agriculture. The two publications presented here are dedicated to this question. The conceptual HBV-light model has been calibrated and validated for 18 sub basins of the Syr Darya. Thereby the lack of accessible meteorological data was an issue which had to be resolved and data gaps had to be closed. Monte Carlo simulations and the equifinality concept have been implemented successfully to reduce these data uncertainties. Based on this initial work, the effect of climate change according to the SRES A1B scenario (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) has been assessed for the time period 2071-2100. 1971-2000 has been selected as the reference period.An increased outflow in winter and spring of 44 to 107% magnitude has been predicted for the sub basins with regard to the current outflow. In contrast, the aestival outflow will decrease by 12-42%. These temperature-driven changes in outflow are going to further impair agricultural irrigation in the Fergana Valley, which will force agriculture to develop additional water-saving technologies.The total annual outflow will increase by 5-17% for glaciated and by about 9% for non-glaciated sub basins. The overall outflow of the rivers Naryn and Kara Darya will decrease by 20% according to the calculations, whereby the input of the 18 investigated sub basins will increase by 37% due to the glacial melting.All things considered, the conducted investigations emphasise the urgent requirement to pursue all available measures that help to mitigate the implications of climate change.
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