Spatial analysis of Sibbinda rural settlement development and deforestation in Zambezi region, Namibia

Abstract

Spatio-temporal analyses using GIS and remote sensing techniques are tools used to model rural settlement development as a catalyst of deforestation. Spatial analyses were performed using IDRISI 17.0 software. A supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm was applied to detect land cover/land use changes observed in the study area. Study land cover was classified into four major land use classes, vegetation, land cleared for settlement purposes, dwelling units/buildings and bare land. Linear and multiple regression were applied to predict and quantify the contribution of roads, building construction and land clearing to deforestation. Past, present and future land use and land cover changes due to Sibbinda rural settlement development favour deforestation. In a rural settlement setup with no major road network development; deforestation is positively associated with road networks for a limited time period, and thereafter as deforestation moves towards saturation stage, it becomes negatively associated with road networks. Vegetated areas that are easily accessible to humans are more likely to be initially deforested. At the early stage of deforestation, the distance of an area from a road network is the most important factor of deforestation in that specific area. As deforestation increases in the area the distance from buildings becomes the most significant factor of deforestation. Deforestation hotspots at Sibbinda are expected in the northwest direction, in areas far from roads, yet more densely vegetated. Reforestation is very low at the Sibbinda settlement, as it is mainly a result of natural processes. To minimise the extent of deforestation, future settlement development projects need to correspond to the aims of SDG11, so that forests are effectively preserved. There is a need to draw future settlement land-use plans depicting the future growths of the settlement and forestry conservancy areas (mainly in the northwest of Sibbinda).